Wait for round two before adding spare lobbies

src/lib/server/autoscaling/planner.ts

@@ -120,6 +120,21 @@ export function planScaling(
     )
         return result('wait', 'Waiting for fresh occupancy evidence.');
     if (occupied + empty < desired) {
+        // Brief joins do not increase spare demand until their match reaches round two.
+        // Keep the ordinary desired count for reporting and surplus removal so a
+        // new match or missing telemetry cannot retire an existing spare.
+        const established = members.filter(
+            (m) => m.state === 'occupied' && m.round !== null && m.round >= 2
+        ).length;
+        const growthTarget = Math.min(
+            policy.maximum,
+            Math.max(policy.minimum, established + policy.spares)
+        );
+        if (occupied + empty >= growthTarget)
+            return result(
+                'wait',
+                'Waiting for occupied lobbies to reach round 2 before adding a spare.'
+            );
         if (snapshot.reservedNames.length >= policy.maximum)
             return result('wait', 'Maximum lobby reservations reached.');
         if (!snapshot.keyPool.available)