Wait for round two before adding spare lobbies

src/lib/server/autoscaling/planner.ts

@@ -120,6 +120,21 @@ export function planScaling(
     )
         return result('wait', 'Waiting for fresh occupancy evidence.');
     if (occupied + empty < desired) {
+        // Brief joins do not increase spare demand until their match reaches round two.
+        // Keep the ordinary desired count for reporting and surplus removal so a
+        // new match or missing telemetry cannot retire an existing spare.
+        const established = members.filter(
+            (m) => m.state === 'occupied' && m.round !== null && m.round >= 2
+        ).length;
+        const growthTarget = Math.min(
+            policy.maximum,
+            Math.max(policy.minimum, established + policy.spares)
+        );
+        if (occupied + empty >= growthTarget)
+            return result(
+                'wait',
+                'Waiting for occupied lobbies to reach round 2 before adding a spare.'
+            );
         if (snapshot.reservedNames.length >= policy.maximum)
             return result('wait', 'Maximum lobby reservations reached.');
         if (!snapshot.keyPool.available)

src/lib/server/autoscaling/snapshot.ts

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import { listServers, type ServerRow } from '../fleet/servers.js';
 import { observationReader } from '../fleet/status.js';
 import { parseServerName, zombieMaps } from '../../map-aliases.js';
 import { freshStatusTimestamp } from '../../server-freshness.js';
+import { currentRound } from '../../fleet-overview.js';
 import type { ScalingMember, ScalingPolicy, ScalingSnapshot } from '../../autoscaling.js';
 import { emptyObservation, type EmptyObservation } from './planner.js';
 
@@ -164,6 +165,12 @@ export function scalingSnapshot(
             identity,
             state,
             players,
+            round:
+                state === 'occupied' &&
+                observation.telemetry &&
+                Date.parse(observation.telemetry.receivedAt) <= now
+                    ? currentRound(observation, observation.telemetry, now)
+                    : null,
             observedAt,
             source: source ?? null,
             emptySince: null,
@@ -181,6 +188,7 @@ export function scalingSnapshot(
                 identity: 'reserved',
                 state: 'creating',
                 players: null,
+                round: null,
                 observedAt: null,
                 source: null,
                 emptySince: null,