Wait for round two before adding spare lobbies

src/lib/autoscaling.ts

@@ -24,6 +24,8 @@ export interface ScalingMember {
     identity: string;
     state: 'occupied' | 'empty' | 'creating' | 'removing' | 'stopped' | 'unknown' | 'protected';
     players: number | null;
+    /** Current occupied match round from fresh telemetry; null when unavailable. */
+    round: number | null;
     observedAt: number | null;
     source: string | null;
     emptySince: number | null;

src/lib/fleet-overview.ts

@@ -58,7 +58,10 @@ export interface FleetOperation {
 export type FleetFilter = 'all' | 'occupied' | 'empty' | 'attention' | 'testing' | 'pinned';
 export type FleetSort = 'name' | 'players' | 'round' | 'duration';
 
-export function freshServer(server: FleetServer, now: number): boolean {
+export function freshServer(
+    server: Pick<FleetServer, 'health' | 'last_error' | 'last_seen_at'>,
+    now: number
+): boolean {
     return (
         server.health === 'online' &&
         !server.last_error &&
@@ -93,7 +96,18 @@ export function fleetIdentity(
 }
 
 export function currentRound(
-    server: FleetServer,
+    server: Pick<
+        FleetServer,
+        | 'telemetry'
+        | 'telemetry_after'
+        | 'health'
+        | 'last_error'
+        | 'last_seen_at'
+        | 'last_players'
+        | 'active_since'
+        | 'game_started_at'
+        | 'game_ended_at'
+    >,
     report: GameTelemetry | undefined,
     now: number
 ): number | null {

src/lib/server/autoscaling/planner.ts

@@ -120,6 +120,21 @@ export function planScaling(
     )
         return result('wait', 'Waiting for fresh occupancy evidence.');
     if (occupied + empty < desired) {
+        // Brief joins do not increase spare demand until their match reaches round two.
+        // Keep the ordinary desired count for reporting and surplus removal so a
+        // new match or missing telemetry cannot retire an existing spare.
+        const established = members.filter(
+            (m) => m.state === 'occupied' && m.round !== null && m.round >= 2
+        ).length;
+        const growthTarget = Math.min(
+            policy.maximum,
+            Math.max(policy.minimum, established + policy.spares)
+        );
+        if (occupied + empty >= growthTarget)
+            return result(
+                'wait',
+                'Waiting for occupied lobbies to reach round 2 before adding a spare.'
+            );
         if (snapshot.reservedNames.length >= policy.maximum)
             return result('wait', 'Maximum lobby reservations reached.');
         if (!snapshot.keyPool.available)

src/lib/server/autoscaling/snapshot.ts

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import { listServers, type ServerRow } from '../fleet/servers.js';
 import { observationReader } from '../fleet/status.js';
 import { parseServerName, zombieMaps } from '../../map-aliases.js';
 import { freshStatusTimestamp } from '../../server-freshness.js';
+import { currentRound } from '../../fleet-overview.js';
 import type { ScalingMember, ScalingPolicy, ScalingSnapshot } from '../../autoscaling.js';
 import { emptyObservation, type EmptyObservation } from './planner.js';
 
@@ -164,6 +165,12 @@ export function scalingSnapshot(
             identity,
             state,
             players,
+            round:
+                state === 'occupied' &&
+                observation.telemetry &&
+                Date.parse(observation.telemetry.receivedAt) <= now
+                    ? currentRound(observation, observation.telemetry, now)
+                    : null,
             observedAt,
             source: source ?? null,
             emptySince: null,
@@ -181,6 +188,7 @@ export function scalingSnapshot(
                 identity: 'reserved',
                 state: 'creating',
                 players: null,
+                round: null,
                 observedAt: null,
                 source: null,
                 emptySince: null,