Wait for round two before adding spare lobbies

docs/guides/autoscaling.md

@@ -19,7 +19,9 @@ Choose **Save policy** to apply changes directly. Saving checks the current flee
 
 Plutonium keys belong to a game pool shared by every map, manual launch, collection, beta, and autoscaling policy for that game. An eligible creation uses the lowest available lobby number from 1–20 and reserves any free game key atomically. Key labels do not select a map or lobby. The policy shows saved and available game keys; policy maxima can exceed pool size, and a policy can be saved before any keys are added. An empty or exhausted pool holds new growth with a clear reason; it does not prevent surplus removal. Queued launches reserve their key, stopped instances retain it, and confirmed cleanup returns it to the pool. Failed or uncertain launches keep their reservation until safely reconciled. Existing lobbies and unfinished operations must be healthy and settled before activation. Automatic removal also requires agent **1.7.0 or later** advertising `instance.autoscaling-remove` on each affected host.
 
-The desired count is `min(maximum, max(minimum, occupied lobbies + empty spare target))`. The controller evaluates policies every 15 seconds and requests at most one unresolved operation per policy. Game-wide policies allow one outstanding operation across their maps, prioritizing additions before removals. Once an operation settles, the next evaluation can act immediately on another eligible lobby. Surplus lobbies must still satisfy the configured continuous empty duration before removal. Create uses the existing startup concurrency, CPU, memory, library, port, and host admission checks. Lack of host capacity leaves one request waiting; it does not create additional requests every tick. Creates use current promoted launch files when provisioning begins.
+The desired count is `min(maximum, max(minimum, occupied lobbies + empty spare target))`. Each occupied lobby must reach **round 2 or greater**, confirmed by fresh telemetry for its current match, before it increases the creation target. Brief joins, round-one matches, and unavailable round evidence do not trigger an additional spare. The minimum and baseline spare target can still bootstrap a map without an active match. Existing spares remain protected by the ordinary desired count even when a match restarts or round evidence becomes unavailable.
+
+The controller evaluates policies every 15 seconds and requests at most one unresolved operation per policy. Game-wide policies apply the round requirement independently to each map and allow one outstanding operation across their maps, prioritizing additions before removals. Once an operation settles, the next evaluation can act immediately on another eligible lobby. Unsubmitted creates are withdrawn if they no longer meet the round or capacity requirements. Surplus lobbies must still satisfy the configured continuous empty duration before removal. Create uses the existing startup concurrency, CPU, memory, library, port, and host admission checks. Lack of host capacity leaves one request waiting; it does not create additional requests every tick. Creates use current promoted launch files when provisioning begins.
 
 When trimming a map, autoscaling keeps occupied lobbies and the lowest-numbered
 empty lobbies needed for its minimum and spare targets. It selects the