Remove estimated remaining decay, use audit values directly

Replace burn-rate estimation (linear decay between audits) with actual
last audit values. Remaining is now always the last weigh-in value or
original weight if no audits exist — no more speculative daily decay.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

web/src/components/ProductDetail.tsx

@@ -38,8 +38,8 @@ export function ProductDetail({
   const bin = data.bins.find((b) => b.id === item.binId);
   const cfg = TYPES.find((t) => t.id === item.type);
   const product = data.products.find((p) => p.id === item.productId);
-  const pctRemaining = helpers.pctRemaining(item, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
-  const est = helpers.estimatedRemaining(item, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
+  const pctRemaining = helpers.pctRemaining(item);
+  const rem = helpers.remaining(item);
   const last = helpers.lastAudit(item);
   const overdue = helpers.auditOverdue(item, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
   const sinceCheck = helpers.daysSinceCheck(item, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
@@ -293,12 +293,12 @@ export function ProductDetail({
                 }}
               >
                 <div className="smallcaps" style={{ color: "var(--ink-3)" }}>
-                  {item.kind === "discrete" ? "Units remaining" : "Estimated remaining"}
+                  {item.kind === "discrete" ? "Units remaining" : "Remaining"}
                 </div>
                 <div style={{ fontFamily: "var(--mono)", fontSize: 13 }}>
                   {item.kind === "discrete"
                     ? `${item.countLastAudit ?? item.countOriginal} of ${item.countOriginal}`
-                    : `${est.toFixed(2)} of ${item.weight} ${cfg?.unit ?? "g"}`}
+                    : `${rem.toFixed(2)} of ${item.weight} ${cfg?.unit ?? "g"}`}
                   <span style={{ color: "var(--ink-3)", marginLeft: 8 }}>
                     {Math.round(pctRemaining * 100)}%
                   </span>
@@ -327,8 +327,7 @@ export function ProductDetail({
                     fontStyle: "italic",
                   }}
                 >
-                  Estimated by linear decay since last {last.mode} on {fmt.dateShort(last.date, getStoredTimezone())} ({last.value.toFixed(2)}
-                  {cfg?.unit}). Re-audit to update.
+                  Last {last.mode} on {fmt.dateShort(last.date, getStoredTimezone())}
                 </div>
               )}
               {item.containerWeight != null && last && (
@@ -340,7 +339,7 @@ export function ProductDetail({
                     fontStyle: "italic",
                   }}
                 >
-                  Expected container total: {((item.containerWeight - item.weight) + est).toFixed(2)}g
+                  Expected container total: {((item.containerWeight - item.weight) + rem).toFixed(2)}g
                 </div>
               )}
             </div>

web/src/components/modals/AuditFlow.tsx

@@ -55,7 +55,8 @@ export function AuditFlow({
     if (i.kind === "discrete") {
       return String(i.countLastAudit ?? i.countOriginal);
     }
-    return helpers.estimatedRemaining(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone())).toFixed(2);
+    const last = helpers.lastAudit(i);
+    return (last ? last.value : i.weight).toFixed(2);
   };
   const [value, setValue] = useState<string>(initialValueFor(item));
   const isConcentrate = item?.type === "Concentrate";

web/src/components/modals/CheckinFlow.tsx

@@ -35,7 +35,8 @@ export function CheckinFlow({
 
   const isBulk = item?.kind === "bulk";
   const cfg = item ? TYPES.find((t) => t.id === item.type) : undefined;
-  const est = item ? helpers.estimatedRemaining(item, getToday(getStoredTimezone())) : 0;
+  const lastAudit = item ? helpers.lastAudit(item) : null;
+  const rem = item ? (lastAudit ? lastAudit.value : item.weight) : 0;
 
   const checkin = useMutation({
     mutationFn: () => {
@@ -63,7 +64,8 @@ export function CheckinFlow({
       const scanned = allItems.find((i) => i.id === result.item.id);
       if (scanned?.prevBinId) setBinId(scanned.prevBinId);
       if (scanned?.kind === "bulk") {
-        setRemaining(helpers.estimatedRemaining(scanned, getToday(getStoredTimezone())).toFixed(2));
+        const scanLast = helpers.lastAudit(scanned);
+        setRemaining((scanLast ? scanLast.value : scanned.weight).toFixed(2));
       }
     }
   };
@@ -157,7 +159,7 @@ export function CheckinFlow({
                 {isBulk && (
                   <Field
                     label={`Weight now (${cfg?.unit ?? "g"})`}
-                    hint={`Was ~${est.toFixed(2)} ${cfg?.unit ?? "g"}`}
+                    hint={`Last audit: ${rem.toFixed(2)} ${cfg?.unit ?? "g"}`}
                   >
                     <Input
                       type="number"

web/src/stats.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 // computeStats — derives daily/weekly/monthly grams from purchase + audit
-// history, using estimated remaining for active items and full weight for
+// history, using last audit values for active items and full weight for
 // consumed. Gone items contribute spend but NOT grams (so daily averages
 // stay clean). Operates on the enriched Item[] view, not raw products.
 
@@ -88,8 +88,8 @@ export function computeStats(data: Bootstrap): Stats {
   const bulkGramsUsedSoFar = (p: Item): number => {
     if (p.type === "Tincture" || p.type === "Edible") return 0;
     if (p.kind === "bulk") {
-      const est = helpers.estimatedRemaining(p, todayStr);
-      return Math.max(0, p.weight - est);
+      const rem = helpers.remaining(p);
+      return Math.max(0, p.weight - rem);
     }
     const cur = p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal;
     return Math.max(0, p.countOriginal - cur) * (p.unitWeight || 0);
@@ -152,16 +152,13 @@ export function computeStats(data: Bootstrap): Stats {
   const spend90 = last90p.reduce((s, p) => s + p.price, 0);
 
   const inventoryValue = active.reduce(
-    (s, p) => s + p.price * helpers.pctRemaining(p, todayStr),
+    (s, p) => s + p.price * helpers.pctRemaining(p),
     0,
   );
 
-  // Grams currently on hand: bulk uses estimated remaining; discrete uses
-  // (units × per-unit weight). Tincture (ml) and edibles (count) are excluded
-  // to match the existing `bulkGrams` convention used for $/g and totals.
   const inventoryGrams = active.reduce((s, p) => {
     if (p.type === "Tincture" || p.type === "Edible") return s;
-    if (p.kind === "bulk") return s + helpers.estimatedRemaining(p, todayStr);
+    if (p.kind === "bulk") return s + helpers.remaining(p);
     const cur = p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal;
     return s + cur * (p.unitWeight || 0);
   }, 0);
@@ -198,10 +195,10 @@ export function computeStats(data: Bootstrap): Stats {
   const typeBreakdown: Record<string, number> = {};
   active.forEach((p) => {
     let g: number;
-    if (p.type === "Tincture") g = helpers.estimatedRemaining(p, todayStr) * 0.5;
+    if (p.type === "Tincture") g = helpers.remaining(p) * 0.5;
     else if (p.type === "Edible")
       g = (p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal) * 0.3;
-    else if (p.kind === "bulk") g = helpers.estimatedRemaining(p, todayStr);
+    else if (p.kind === "bulk") g = helpers.remaining(p);
     else g = (p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal) * (p.unitWeight || 0);
     if (g > 0) typeBreakdown[p.type] = (typeBreakdown[p.type] || 0) + g;
   });
@@ -209,7 +206,7 @@ export function computeStats(data: Bootstrap): Stats {
   const flowerEquivalent = active
     .filter((p) => p.type === "Flower" || p.type === "Pre-roll")
     .reduce((s, p) => {
-      if (p.kind === "bulk") return s + helpers.estimatedRemaining(p, todayStr);
+      if (p.kind === "bulk") return s + helpers.remaining(p);
       return s + (p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal) * (p.unitWeight || 0);
     }, 0);
   const daysOfSupply = dailyAvg > 0 ? flowerEquivalent / dailyAvg : 0;
@@ -226,7 +223,7 @@ export function computeStats(data: Bootstrap): Stats {
   const overdueAudits = active.filter((p) => helpers.auditOverdue(p, todayStr));
 
   const lowStockBulk = active.filter(
-    (p) => p.kind === "bulk" && helpers.pctRemaining(p, todayStr) < 0.25,
+    (p) => p.kind === "bulk" && helpers.pctRemaining(p) < 0.25,
   );
 
   // Group discrete instances by product so multiple jars of the same
@@ -299,7 +296,7 @@ export function remainingShort(p: Item): string {
     const cur = p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal;
     return `${cur} ct`;
   }
-  const est = helpers.estimatedRemaining(p);
-  const trimmed = est.toFixed(2).replace(/\.?0+$/, "") || "0";
+  const rem = helpers.remaining(p);
+  const trimmed = rem.toFixed(2).replace(/\.?0+$/, "") || "0";
   return `${trimmed} ${cfg?.unit ?? "g"}`;
 }

web/src/types.ts

@@ -206,28 +206,20 @@ export const helpers = {
     if (!cfg) return false;
     return this.daysSinceCheck(p, today) >= cfg.cadenceDays;
   },
-  estimatedRemaining(p: Item, today = TODAY_STR): number {
+  remaining(p: Item): number {
     if (p.status !== "active" && p.status !== "checked-out") return 0;
     if (p.kind === "discrete") {
       return p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal;
     }
     const last = this.lastAudit(p);
-    if (!last) return p.weight;
-    const daysSinceBase = Math.max(
-      0,
-      Math.floor((+new Date(today) - +new Date(last.date)) / 86_400_000),
-    );
-    const expectedLifespan =
-      p.type === "Flower" ? 35 : p.type === "Concentrate" ? 40 : 90;
-    const dailyBurn = p.weight / expectedLifespan;
-    return Math.max(0, last.value - dailyBurn * daysSinceBase);
+    return last ? last.value : p.weight;
   },
-  pctRemaining(p: Item, today = TODAY_STR): number {
+  pctRemaining(p: Item): number {
     if (p.kind === "discrete") {
       const cur = p.countLastAudit ?? p.countOriginal;
       return p.countOriginal > 0 ? cur / p.countOriginal : 0;
     }
-    const est = this.estimatedRemaining(p, today);
-    return p.weight > 0 ? est / p.weight : 0;
+    const rem = this.remaining(p);
+    return p.weight > 0 ? rem / p.weight : 0;
   },
 };

web/src/views/BinsView.tsx

@@ -2,7 +2,6 @@ import { useMemo, useState } from "react";
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from "@tanstack/react-query";
 import type { Bootstrap, Bin, Item } from "../types.js";
 import { helpers, enrichItems } from "../types.js";
-import { getToday, getStoredTimezone } from "../tz.js";
 import { remainingShort } from "../stats.js";
 import { fmt, TYPE_GLYPHS } from "../format.js";
 import { api } from "../api.js";
@@ -124,7 +123,7 @@ export function BinsView({
               );
               const fillPct = slotsUsed / bin.capacity;
               const totalValue = binItems.reduce(
-                (s, i) => s + i.price * helpers.pctRemaining(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone())),
+                (s, i) => s + i.price * helpers.pctRemaining(i),
                 0,
               );
               return (

web/src/views/CustodyView.tsx

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { useMemo } from "react";
 import type { Bootstrap, Item } from "../types.js";
 import { helpers, enrichItems } from "../types.js";
-import { getToday, getStoredTimezone } from "../tz.js";
+import { getStoredTimezone } from "../tz.js";
 import { remainingShort } from "../stats.js";
 import { fmt, TYPE_GLYPHS } from "../format.js";
 import { Btn, Card, Icon } from "../components/primitives/index.js";
@@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ function CustodyRow({
   onMarkGone: () => void;
 }) {
   const glyph = TYPE_GLYPHS[item.type] ?? "·";
-  const pct = helpers.pctRemaining(item, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
+  const pct = helpers.pctRemaining(item);
 
   return (
     <div

web/src/views/Dashboard.tsx

@@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ export function Dashboard({
           label="Inventory on hand"
           value={stats.inventoryGrams.toFixed(stats.inventoryGrams >= 10 ? 1 : 2)}
           unit="g"
-          sub="Estimated remaining across active jars"
+          sub="Remaining across active jars"
         />
         <Stat
           label="Spent all-time"
@@ -340,7 +340,7 @@ export function Dashboard({
               </div>
             )}
             {lowBulk.slice(0, 3).map((i) => {
-              const pct = helpers.pctRemaining(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
+              const pct = helpers.pctRemaining(i);
               return (
                 <div
                   key={i.id}

web/src/views/Inventory.tsx

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ export function Inventory({
     if (sortBy === "name") return dir * a.name.localeCompare(b.name);
     if (sortBy === "thc") return dir * (b.thc - a.thc);
     if (sortBy === "remaining")
-      return dir * (helpers.estimatedRemaining(b, getToday(getStoredTimezone())) - helpers.estimatedRemaining(a, getToday(getStoredTimezone())));
+      return dir * (helpers.remaining(b) - helpers.remaining(a));
     if (sortBy === "price") return dir * (b.price - a.price);
     if (sortBy === "audit")
       return dir * (helpers.daysSinceCheck(b, getToday(getStoredTimezone())) - helpers.daysSinceCheck(a, getToday(getStoredTimezone())));
@@ -512,7 +512,7 @@ function GroupHeader({
 }) {
   const active = group.items.filter((i) => i.status === "active");
   const totalRemaining = active.reduce((s, i) => {
-    if (i.kind === "bulk") return s + helpers.estimatedRemaining(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
+    if (i.kind === "bulk") return s + helpers.remaining(i);
     return s + (i.countLastAudit ?? i.countOriginal);
   }, 0);
   const lastBuy = group.items.reduce((max, i) => {
@@ -591,7 +591,7 @@ function ItemRow({
   onToggle: (id: string, shiftKey: boolean) => void;
 }) {
   const bin = data.bins.find((b) => b.id === i.binId);
-  const pctRemaining = helpers.pctRemaining(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
+  const pctRemaining = helpers.pctRemaining(i);
   const overdue = helpers.auditOverdue(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
   const sinceCheck = helpers.daysSinceCheck(i, getToday(getStoredTimezone()));
   const last = helpers.lastAudit(i);