AIHostingTycoon/packages/game-simulation/src/analysis/systemInterconnections.ts

import type { SimulationMetrics } from '../strategies/types';
import type { TickNotification } from '@token-empire/game-engine';

export interface SystemConnection {
  from: string;
  to: string;
  score: number;
  evidence: string;
  diagnosis: string;
  events: number;
  eventLabel: string;
}

export interface InterconnectionResult {
  connections: SystemConnection[];
  overallScore: number;
  weakLinks: SystemConnection[];
  deadLinks: SystemConnection[];
}

function findMetricAtTick(metrics: SimulationMetrics[], tick: number): SimulationMetrics | undefined {
  for (let i = metrics.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
    if (metrics[i].tick <= tick) return metrics[i];
  }
  return metrics[0];
}

function findMetricAfterTick(metrics: SimulationMetrics[], tick: number, windowTicks: number): SimulationMetrics | undefined {
  const target = tick + windowTicks;
  for (const m of metrics) {
    if (m.tick >= target) return m;
  }
  return undefined;
}

function measureDelta(
  metrics: SimulationMetrics[],
  eventTicks: number[],
  getter: (m: SimulationMetrics) => number,
  windowTicks = 300,
): { totalDelta: number; events: number } {
  let totalDelta = 0;
  let events = 0;
  for (const tick of eventTicks) {
    const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
    const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, windowTicks);
    if (before && after) {
      totalDelta += after[getter.name as keyof SimulationMetrics] !== undefined
        ? getter(after) - getter(before)
        : 0;
      events++;
    }
  }
  return { totalDelta, events };
}

function scoreFromDelta(totalDelta: number, events: number, scale: number): number {
  if (events === 0) return 0;
  const avgDelta = totalDelta / events;
  return Math.min(10, Math.max(0, Math.round((avgDelta / scale) * 10)));
}

function detectResearchCompletionTicks(metrics: SimulationMetrics[]): number[] {
  const ticks: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
    if (metrics[i].researchCount > metrics[i - 1].researchCount) {
      ticks.push(metrics[i].tick);
    }
  }
  return ticks;
}

function detectModelDeploymentTicks(metrics: SimulationMetrics[]): number[] {
  const ticks: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
    if (metrics[i].modelsDeployed > metrics[i - 1].modelsDeployed) {
      ticks.push(metrics[i].tick);
    }
  }
  return ticks;
}

function detectFundingTicks(metrics: SimulationMetrics[]): number[] {
  const ticks: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
    if (metrics[i].fundingRoundsCompleted > metrics[i - 1].fundingRoundsCompleted) {
      ticks.push(metrics[i].tick);
    }
  }
  return ticks;
}

function detectHiringSpikes(metrics: SimulationMetrics[]): number[] {
  const ticks: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
    if (metrics[i].headcount - metrics[i - 1].headcount >= 3) {
      ticks.push(metrics[i].tick);
    }
  }
  return ticks;
}

function detectComputeGrowthTicks(metrics: SimulationMetrics[]): number[] {
  const ticks: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
    const prev = metrics[i - 1].totalFlops;
    const curr = metrics[i].totalFlops;
    if (prev > 0 && (curr - prev) / prev > 0.1) {
      ticks.push(metrics[i].tick);
    }
  }
  return ticks;
}

export function analyzeSystemInterconnections(
  metrics: SimulationMetrics[],
  _notifications: TickNotification[],
): InterconnectionResult {
  const connections: SystemConnection[] = [];

  if (metrics.length < 10) {
    return { connections: [], overallScore: 0, weakLinks: [], deadLinks: [] };
  }

  const researchTicks = detectResearchCompletionTicks(metrics);
  const deployTicks = detectModelDeploymentTicks(metrics);
  const fundingTicks = detectFundingTicks(metrics);
  const hiringTicks = detectHiringSpikes(metrics);
  const computeGrowthTicks = detectComputeGrowthTicks(metrics);

  // Research → Capability
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of researchTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 600);
      if (before && after) {
        totalDelta += after.bestModelCapability - before.bestModelCapability;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 ? scoreFromDelta(totalDelta, events, 5) : 0;
    const avgDelta = events > 0 ? (totalDelta / events).toFixed(1) : '0';
    connections.push({
      from: 'Research', to: 'Model Capability', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'research completions',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} research completions, avg capability delta: ${avgDelta}`
        : 'No research completions observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No research completions observed'
        : `Research completions did not improve model capability (avg delta: ${avgDelta})`,
    });
  }

  // Research → Infrastructure
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of researchTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 600);
      if (before && after) {
        totalDelta += after.totalFlops - before.totalFlops;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 && totalDelta > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.round((totalDelta / events / 100) * 10)) : 0;
    connections.push({
      from: 'Research', to: 'Infrastructure', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'research completions',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} research completions, avg FLOPS delta: ${(totalDelta / events).toFixed(0)}`
        : 'No research completions observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No research completions observed'
        : `Research completions did not increase compute FLOPS`,
    });
  }

  // Talent → Training (hiring → more training pipelines or faster progress)
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of hiringTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 300);
      if (before && after) {
        totalDelta += after.bestModelCapability - before.bestModelCapability;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 ? scoreFromDelta(totalDelta, events, 3) : 0;
    const avgChange = events > 0 ? (totalDelta / events).toFixed(1) : '0';
    connections.push({
      from: 'Talent', to: 'Training', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'hiring spikes',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} hiring spikes, avg capability change: ${avgChange}`
        : 'No significant hiring events observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No significant hiring events observed'
        : `Hiring had no effect on training capability (avg delta: ${avgChange})`,
    });
  }

  // Talent → Enterprise
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of hiringTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 600);
      if (before && after) {
        totalDelta += after.enterpriseContracts - before.enterpriseContracts;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 && totalDelta > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.round((totalDelta / events) * 5)) : 0;
    connections.push({
      from: 'Talent', to: 'Enterprise', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'hiring spikes',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} hiring spikes, avg enterprise contract delta: ${(totalDelta / events).toFixed(1)}`
        : 'No hiring events observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No hiring events observed'
        : `Hiring did not lead to enterprise contracts`,
    });
  }

  // Infrastructure → Revenue
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of computeGrowthTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 300);
      if (before && after && before.revenue > 0) {
        totalDelta += (after.revenue - before.revenue) / before.revenue;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.max(0, Math.round((totalDelta / events) * 20))) : 0;
    connections.push({
      from: 'Infrastructure', to: 'Revenue', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'compute expansions',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} compute growth events, avg revenue growth: ${((totalDelta / events) * 100).toFixed(1)}%`
        : 'No compute growth events observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No compute growth events observed'
        : `Compute growth did not increase revenue`,
    });
  }

  // Models → Revenue
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of deployTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 300);
      if (before && after) {
        const revDelta = before.revenue > 0
          ? (after.revenue - before.revenue) / before.revenue
          : (after.revenue > 0 ? 1 : 0);
        totalDelta += revDelta;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.max(0, Math.round((totalDelta / events) * 10))) : 0;
    connections.push({
      from: 'Models', to: 'Revenue', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'model deployments',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} model deployments, avg revenue change: ${((totalDelta / events) * 100).toFixed(1)}%`
        : 'No model deployments observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No model deployments observed'
        : `Model deployments did not increase revenue`,
    });
  }

  // Models → Enterprise
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of deployTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 600);
      if (before && after) {
        totalDelta += after.enterpriseContracts - before.enterpriseContracts;
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 && totalDelta > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.round((totalDelta / events) * 5)) : 0;
    connections.push({
      from: 'Models', to: 'Enterprise', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'model deployments',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} deployments, avg enterprise contract delta: ${(totalDelta / events).toFixed(1)}`
        : 'No model deployments observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No model deployments observed'
        : `Model deployments did not attract enterprise contracts`,
    });
  }

  // Funding → Growth
  {
    let totalDelta = 0;
    let events = 0;
    for (const tick of fundingTicks) {
      const before = findMetricAtTick(metrics, tick);
      const after = findMetricAfterTick(metrics, tick, 600);
      if (before && after) {
        const growthBefore = before.revenue;
        const growthAfter = after.revenue;
        totalDelta += growthBefore > 0
          ? (growthAfter - growthBefore) / growthBefore
          : (growthAfter > 0 ? 1 : 0);
        events++;
      }
    }
    const score = events > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.max(0, Math.round((totalDelta / events) * 10))) : 0;
    connections.push({
      from: 'Funding', to: 'Growth', score, events,
      eventLabel: 'funding rounds',
      evidence: events > 0
        ? `${events} funding rounds, avg revenue growth: ${((totalDelta / events) * 100).toFixed(1)}%`
        : 'No funding rounds observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : events === 0 ? 'No funding rounds observed'
        : `Funding rounds did not boost revenue`,
    });
  }

  // Compute → Serving quality (utilization tracking)
  {
    let wellUtilizedCount = 0;
    let totalSamples = 0;
    for (const m of metrics) {
      if (m.tokensPerSecondCapacity > 0) {
        totalSamples++;
        const util = m.inferenceUtilization;
        if (util > 0.2 && util < 0.95) wellUtilizedCount++;
      }
    }
    const score = totalSamples > 0 ? Math.min(10, Math.round((wellUtilizedCount / totalSamples) * 10)) : 0;
    const pct = totalSamples > 0 ? ((wellUtilizedCount / totalSamples) * 100).toFixed(1) : '0';
    connections.push({
      from: 'Compute', to: 'Serving', score, events: totalSamples,
      eventLabel: 'utilization samples',
      evidence: totalSamples > 0
        ? `${wellUtilizedCount}/${totalSamples} samples with healthy utilization (20-95%)`
        : 'No compute capacity observed',
      diagnosis: score >= 7 ? 'Strong link'
        : totalSamples === 0 ? 'No compute capacity observed'
        : `Only ${wellUtilizedCount}/${totalSamples} samples (${pct}%) in healthy utilization range (20-95%)`,
    });
  }

  const overallScore = connections.length > 0
    ? Math.round(connections.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.score, 0) / connections.length * 10) / 10
    : 0;

  const weakLinks = connections.filter(c => c.score > 0 && c.score < 3);
  const deadLinks = connections.filter(c => c.score === 0);

  return { connections, overallScore, weakLinks, deadLinks };
}