AIHostingTycoon/packages/game-simulation/src/analysis/growthRates.ts

import type { SimulationMetrics } from '../strategies/types';

export type TrackedMetric = 'revenue' | 'subscribers' | 'developers'
  | 'bestModelCapability' | 'reputation' | 'totalFlops';

const TRACKED_METRICS: TrackedMetric[] = [
  'revenue', 'subscribers', 'developers',
  'bestModelCapability', 'reputation', 'totalFlops',
];

export interface StagnationAlert {
  metric: TrackedMetric;
  startTick: number;
  endTick: number;
  durationTicks: number;
  stuckValue: number;
  era: string;
}

export interface ExponentialAlert {
  metric: TrackedMetric;
  tick: number;
  growthRate: number;
  consecutiveSamples: number;
}

export interface GrowthRateResult {
  stagnations: StagnationAlert[];
  exponentialAlerts: ExponentialAlert[];
}

function getMetricValue(m: SimulationMetrics, metric: TrackedMetric): number {
  return m[metric] as number;
}

export function analyzeGrowthRates(
  metrics: SimulationMetrics[],
  stagnationWindowSamples = 20,
  stagnationThreshold = 0.01,
): GrowthRateResult {
  const stagnations: StagnationAlert[] = [];
  const exponentialAlerts: ExponentialAlert[] = [];

  for (const metric of TRACKED_METRICS) {
    const growthRates: number[] = [];

    for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
      const prev = getMetricValue(metrics[i - 1], metric);
      const curr = getMetricValue(metrics[i], metric);
      if (prev > 0) {
        growthRates.push((curr - prev) / prev);
      } else {
        growthRates.push(curr > 0 ? 1 : 0);
      }
    }

    let stagnationStart: number | null = null;
    let flatCount = 0;

    for (let i = 0; i < growthRates.length; i++) {
      if (Math.abs(growthRates[i]) < stagnationThreshold) {
        if (stagnationStart === null) stagnationStart = i;
        flatCount++;
      } else {
        if (flatCount >= stagnationWindowSamples && stagnationStart !== null) {
          const startIdx = stagnationStart + 1;
          const endIdx = i + 1;
          stagnations.push({
            metric,
            startTick: metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0,
            endTick: metrics[endIdx]?.tick ?? metrics[metrics.length - 1]?.tick ?? 0,
            durationTicks: (metrics[endIdx]?.tick ?? 0) - (metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0),
            stuckValue: getMetricValue(metrics[startIdx], metric),
            era: metrics[startIdx]?.era ?? 'unknown',
          });
        }
        stagnationStart = null;
        flatCount = 0;
      }
    }

    if (flatCount >= stagnationWindowSamples && stagnationStart !== null) {
      const startIdx = stagnationStart + 1;
      stagnations.push({
        metric,
        startTick: metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0,
        endTick: metrics[metrics.length - 1]?.tick ?? 0,
        durationTicks: (metrics[metrics.length - 1]?.tick ?? 0) - (metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0),
        stuckValue: getMetricValue(metrics[startIdx], metric),
        era: metrics[startIdx]?.era ?? 'unknown',
      });
    }

    let expCount = 0;
    for (let i = 0; i < growthRates.length; i++) {
      if (growthRates[i] > 0.10) {
        expCount++;
        if (expCount >= 5) {
          exponentialAlerts.push({
            metric,
            tick: metrics[i + 1]?.tick ?? 0,
            growthRate: growthRates[i],
            consecutiveSamples: expCount,
          });
        }
      } else {
        expCount = 0;
      }
    }
  }

  return { stagnations, exponentialAlerts };
}