AIHostingTycoon/packages/game-engine/src/systems/market/consumerTierSystem.ts

import type { ConsumerTierState, ConsumerTierId, TierServingMetrics } from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
import {
  CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER,
  CONVERSION_RATES,
  TIER_CHURN_RATES,
  FREE_TIER_ADOPTION_RATE,
  CONSUMER_TOKENS_PER_SUBSCRIBER,
  NETWORK_DEGRADATION,
  REJECTION_CHURN_MULTIPLIER,
  QUEUE_CHURN_MULTIPLIER,
  CONSUMER_TIER_BASE_PERCEIVED_VALUE,
  PERCEIVED_VALUE_REPUTATION_RANGE,
  PRICE_ELASTICITY_STEEPNESS,
  PRICE_SATISFACTION_WEIGHT,
  PRICE_CHURN_EXPONENT,
  PRICE_CHURN_MAX_MULTIPLIER,
} from '@ai-tycoon/shared';

export interface ConsumerTickResult {
  consumerTiers: ConsumerTierState;
  subscriptionRevenue: number;
  totalConsumerTokenDemand: number;
}

function computePerceivedValue(
  tierId: ConsumerTierId,
  modelQuality: number,
  reputation: number,
): number {
  const baseValue = CONSUMER_TIER_BASE_PERCEIVED_VALUE[tierId];
  if (baseValue <= 0) return 0;
  const repRange = PERCEIVED_VALUE_REPUTATION_RANGE;
  const repMult = repRange.min + (Math.max(0, Math.min(100, reputation)) / 100) * (repRange.max - repRange.min);
  return baseValue * Math.max(0, modelQuality) * repMult;
}

export function processConsumerTiers(
  tiers: ConsumerTierState,
  playerConsumerCustomers: number,
  modelQuality: number,
  reputation: number,
  seasonalConsumerMultiplier: number,
  networkLatencyPenalty: number,
  consumerPaidMetrics: TierServingMetrics,
  consumerFreeMetrics: TierServingMetrics,
): ConsumerTickResult {
  const updated = {
    tiers: { ...tiers.tiers },
    totalUsers: 0,
    satisfaction: tiers.satisfaction,
    viralCoefficient: tiers.viralCoefficient,
  };

  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
    updated.tiers[id] = { ...tiers.tiers[id], config: { ...tiers.tiers[id].config } };
  }

  if (modelQuality <= 0) {
    return { consumerTiers: updated, subscriptionRevenue: 0, totalConsumerTokenDemand: 0 };
  }

  const qualityFactor = Math.max(0.1, modelQuality);
  const freeAdoption = playerConsumerCustomers * FREE_TIER_ADOPTION_RATE * seasonalConsumerMultiplier;
  const targetFreeUsers = Math.max(updated.tiers.free.userCount, freeAdoption);

  const freeGrowth = (targetFreeUsers - updated.tiers.free.userCount) * 0.05;
  updated.tiers.free.userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers.free.userCount + freeGrowth);
  updated.tiers.free.churnRate = TIER_CHURN_RATES.free;
  const freeChurn = updated.tiers.free.userCount * TIER_CHURN_RATES.free;
  updated.tiers.free.userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers.free.userCount - freeChurn);

  const prevTierMap: Record<ConsumerTierId, ConsumerTierId | null> = {
    free: null,
    plus: 'free',
    pro: 'plus',
    team: 'pro',
  };

  // --- Pass 1: Conversions only (no churn yet) ---
  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
    if (id === 'free') continue;
    const tier = updated.tiers[id];
    if (!tier.config.isActive) continue;
    if (modelQuality * 100 < tier.config.requiredModelQuality) continue;

    const prevId = prevTierMap[id];
    if (!prevId) continue;
    const prevTier = updated.tiers[prevId];

    const conversionKey = `${prevId}->${id}`;
    const baseRate = CONVERSION_RATES[conversionKey] ?? 0;

    const perceivedValue = computePerceivedValue(id, modelQuality, reputation);
    let priceAttr: number;
    if (tier.config.price <= 0) {
      priceAttr = 1;
    } else if (perceivedValue <= 0) {
      priceAttr = 0;
    } else {
      const ratio = tier.config.price / perceivedValue;
      priceAttr = 1 / (1 + Math.pow(ratio, PRICE_ELASTICITY_STEEPNESS));
    }

    const convRate = baseRate * qualityFactor * priceAttr * seasonalConsumerMultiplier;
    const converting = prevTier.userCount * convRate;
    prevTier.userCount = Math.max(0, prevTier.userCount - converting);
    tier.userCount += converting;
    tier.conversionRateFromBelow = convRate;
  }

  // --- Serving penalties & serving-based extra churn ---
  const paidDemand = consumerPaidMetrics.demandTokens;
  const freeDemand = consumerFreeMetrics.demandTokens;
  const totalDemand = paidDemand + freeDemand;

  let servingPenalty = 0;
  if (totalDemand > 0) {
    const totalRejected = consumerPaidMetrics.rejectedTokens + consumerFreeMetrics.rejectedTokens;
    const totalQueued = consumerPaidMetrics.queuedTokens + consumerFreeMetrics.queuedTokens;
    const rejectedFraction = totalRejected / totalDemand;
    const queuedFraction = totalQueued / totalDemand;

    servingPenalty = rejectedFraction * 1.5 + queuedFraction * 0.5;

    const avgQuality = totalDemand > 0
      ? (consumerPaidMetrics.avgQualityDelivered * paidDemand + consumerFreeMetrics.avgQualityDelivered * freeDemand) / totalDemand
      : modelQuality;
    const qualityGap = Math.max(0, modelQuality - avgQuality);
    servingPenalty += qualityGap * 0.8;

    if (consumerFreeMetrics.rejectedTokens > 0 && freeDemand > 0) {
      const freeRejectRate = consumerFreeMetrics.rejectedTokens / freeDemand;
      const extraChurn = updated.tiers.free.userCount * freeRejectRate * 0.01 * REJECTION_CHURN_MULTIPLIER;
      updated.tiers.free.userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers.free.userCount - extraChurn);
    }

    if (consumerPaidMetrics.rejectedTokens > 0 && paidDemand > 0) {
      const paidRejectRate = consumerPaidMetrics.rejectedTokens / paidDemand;
      for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
        if (id === 'free') continue;
        const extraChurn = updated.tiers[id].userCount * paidRejectRate * 0.005 * REJECTION_CHURN_MULTIPLIER;
        updated.tiers[id].userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers[id].userCount - extraChurn);
      }
    }

    if (totalQueued > 0) {
      for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
        const extraChurn = updated.tiers[id].userCount * queuedFraction * 0.002 * QUEUE_CHURN_MULTIPLIER;
        updated.tiers[id].userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers[id].userCount - extraChurn);
      }
    }
  }

  // --- Price-aware satisfaction ---
  let headroomBonus = 0;
  if (totalDemand > 0) {
    const totalServed = consumerPaidMetrics.servedTokens + consumerFreeMetrics.servedTokens;
    const servedFraction = totalServed / totalDemand;
    if (servedFraction > 0.95) {
      headroomBonus = (servedFraction - 0.95) * 4;
    }
  } else {
    headroomBonus = 0.1;
  }

  const netLatencyPenalty = networkLatencyPenalty * NETWORK_DEGRADATION.satisfactionPenaltyPerLatency;
  const qualityServingSatisfaction = Math.min(1, Math.max(0,
    0.3 + modelQuality * 0.5 + headroomBonus - servingPenalty - netLatencyPenalty,
  ));

  let priceSatNumerator = 0;
  let priceSatDenominator = 0;
  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
    if (id === 'free') continue;
    const tier = updated.tiers[id];
    if (tier.userCount <= 0) continue;
    const pv = computePerceivedValue(id, modelQuality, reputation);
    let tierPriceSat: number;
    if (tier.config.price <= 0) {
      tierPriceSat = 1;
    } else if (pv <= 0) {
      tierPriceSat = 0;
    } else {
      tierPriceSat = Math.min(1, pv / tier.config.price);
    }
    priceSatNumerator += tierPriceSat * tier.userCount;
    priceSatDenominator += tier.userCount;
  }
  const priceSatisfaction = priceSatDenominator > 0
    ? priceSatNumerator / priceSatDenominator
    : 1;

  const w = PRICE_SATISFACTION_WEIGHT;
  updated.satisfaction = Math.min(1, Math.max(0,
    (1 - w) * qualityServingSatisfaction + w * priceSatisfaction,
  ));

  // --- Pass 2: Churn (using price-aware satisfaction) ---
  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
    if (id === 'free') continue;
    const tier = updated.tiers[id];

    tier.churnRate = TIER_CHURN_RATES[id];
    const satisfactionChurnMultiplier = 1 + (1 - updated.satisfaction) * 2;

    const pv = computePerceivedValue(id, modelQuality, reputation);
    let priceChurnMultiplier = 1;
    if (tier.config.price > 0 && pv > 0) {
      const ratio = tier.config.price / pv;
      if (ratio > 1) {
        priceChurnMultiplier = Math.min(
          PRICE_CHURN_MAX_MULTIPLIER,
          Math.pow(ratio, PRICE_CHURN_EXPONENT),
        );
      }
    } else if (tier.config.price > 0 && pv <= 0) {
      priceChurnMultiplier = PRICE_CHURN_MAX_MULTIPLIER;
    }

    const churned = tier.userCount * tier.churnRate * satisfactionChurnMultiplier * priceChurnMultiplier;
    tier.userCount = Math.max(0, tier.userCount - churned);
  }

  // --- Revenue & token demand (after all churn — cancelled users don't pay) ---
  let totalUsers = 0;
  let subscriptionRevenue = 0;
  let totalTokenDemand = 0;

  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
    const tier = updated.tiers[id];
    totalUsers += tier.userCount;
    subscriptionRevenue += tier.userCount * (tier.config.price / 86400);
    totalTokenDemand += tier.userCount * CONSUMER_TOKENS_PER_SUBSCRIBER;
  }

  updated.totalUsers = totalUsers;
  updated.viralCoefficient = modelQuality > 0.5 ? 1 + (modelQuality - 0.5) * 2 : 0;

  return {
    consumerTiers: updated,
    subscriptionRevenue,
    totalConsumerTokenDemand: totalTokenDemand,
  };
}