AIHostingTycoon/packages/game-simulation/src/interpret.ts

import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs';
import { writeFileSync } from 'node:fs';

const args = process.argv.slice(2);

function getArg(name: string, defaultValue: string): string {
  const idx = args.indexOf(`--${name}`);
  return idx !== -1 && args[idx + 1] ? args[idx + 1] : defaultValue;
}

const summaryPath = getArg('summary', '');
const outPath = getArg('out', '');

if (!summaryPath) {
  console.error('Usage: interpret --summary <path-to-multirun-summary.csv> [--out <path>]');
  process.exit(1);
}

interface SummaryRow {
  runId: number;
  seed: number;
  passed: boolean;
  wallTimeMs: number;
  finalEra: string;
  finalMoney: number;
  finalRevenue: number;
  finalTotalRevenue: number;
  finalCapability: number;
  finalReputation: number;
  finalSubscribers: number;
  finalDevelopers: number;
  finalHeadcount: number;
  finalResearchCount: number;
  finalModelsDeployed: number;
  revenueStreamDiversity: number;
  featureUtilization: Record<string, number>;
  interconnectionOverall: number;
  interconnections: Record<string, number>;
  eraTransition_scaleup: number | null;
  eraTransition_bigtech: number | null;
  eraTransition_agi: number | null;
  bankruptcyRisks: number;
  sanityErrors: number;
  failureReasons: string;
}

function parseSummaryCsv(content: string): SummaryRow[] {
  const lines = content.trim().split('\n');
  if (lines.length < 2) return [];
  const headers = lines[0].split(',');
  const rows: SummaryRow[] = [];

  for (let i = 1; i < lines.length; i++) {
    const values = parseCSVLine(lines[i]);
    const get = (name: string): string => values[headers.indexOf(name)] ?? '';
    const num = (name: string): number => { const v = get(name); return v === '' ? 0 : Number(v); };

    const fuCategories: Record<string, number> = {};
    const icLinks: Record<string, number> = {};

    for (let h = 0; h < headers.length; h++) {
      if (headers[h].startsWith('featureUtilization_')) {
        fuCategories[headers[h].replace('featureUtilization_', '')] = Number(values[h]) || 0;
      }
      if (headers[h].startsWith('interconnection_') && headers[h] !== 'interconnection_overall') {
        icLinks[headers[h].replace('interconnection_', '')] = Number(values[h]) || 0;
      }
    }

    rows.push({
      runId: num('runId'),
      seed: num('seed'),
      passed: num('passed') === 1,
      wallTimeMs: num('wallTimeMs'),
      finalEra: get('finalEra'),
      finalMoney: num('finalMoney'),
      finalRevenue: num('finalRevenue'),
      finalTotalRevenue: num('finalTotalRevenue'),
      finalCapability: num('finalCapability'),
      finalReputation: num('finalReputation'),
      finalSubscribers: num('finalSubscribers'),
      finalDevelopers: num('finalDevelopers'),
      finalHeadcount: num('finalHeadcount'),
      finalResearchCount: num('finalResearchCount'),
      finalModelsDeployed: num('finalModelsDeployed'),
      revenueStreamDiversity: num('revenueStreamDiversity'),
      featureUtilization: fuCategories,
      interconnectionOverall: num('interconnection_overall'),
      interconnections: icLinks,
      eraTransition_scaleup: get('eraTransition_scaleup') ? num('eraTransition_scaleup') : null,
      eraTransition_bigtech: get('eraTransition_bigtech') ? num('eraTransition_bigtech') : null,
      eraTransition_agi: get('eraTransition_agi') ? num('eraTransition_agi') : null,
      bankruptcyRisks: num('bankruptcyRisks'),
      sanityErrors: num('sanityErrors'),
      failureReasons: get('failureReasons').replace(/^"|"$/g, ''),
    });
  }
  return rows;
}

function parseCSVLine(line: string): string[] {
  const values: string[] = [];
  let current = '';
  let inQuotes = false;
  for (let i = 0; i < line.length; i++) {
    const ch = line[i];
    if (inQuotes) {
      if (ch === '"' && line[i + 1] === '"') {
        current += '"';
        i++;
      } else if (ch === '"') {
        inQuotes = false;
      } else {
        current += ch;
      }
    } else {
      if (ch === '"') {
        inQuotes = true;
      } else if (ch === ',') {
        values.push(current);
        current = '';
      } else {
        current += ch;
      }
    }
  }
  values.push(current);
  return values;
}

interface Stats {
  mean: number;
  median: number;
  stddev: number;
  min: number;
  max: number;
  p5: number;
  p95: number;
  cv: number;
}

function computeStats(values: number[]): Stats {
  if (values.length === 0) return { mean: 0, median: 0, stddev: 0, min: 0, max: 0, p5: 0, p95: 0, cv: 0 };
  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
  const n = sorted.length;
  const mean = sorted.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n;
  const median = n % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[n / 2 - 1] + sorted[n / 2]) / 2 : sorted[Math.floor(n / 2)];
  const variance = sorted.reduce((sum, v) => sum + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n;
  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance);
  const min = sorted[0];
  const max = sorted[n - 1];
  const p5 = sorted[Math.floor(n * 0.05)] ?? min;
  const p95 = sorted[Math.min(Math.floor(n * 0.95), n - 1)] ?? max;
  const cv = mean !== 0 ? stddev / Math.abs(mean) : 0;
  return { mean, median, stddev, min, max, p5, p95, cv };
}

function fmtNum(n: number, decimals = 1): string {
  if (Math.abs(n) >= 1e9) return `${(n / 1e9).toFixed(decimals)}B`;
  if (Math.abs(n) >= 1e6) return `${(n / 1e6).toFixed(decimals)}M`;
  if (Math.abs(n) >= 1e3) return `${(n / 1e3).toFixed(decimals)}K`;
  return n.toFixed(decimals);
}

function pad(s: string, w: number): string {
  return s.padEnd(w);
}

function formatDuration(ticks: number): string {
  const totalMinutes = Math.floor(ticks / 60);
  if (totalMinutes < 60) return `${totalMinutes}m`;
  const hours = Math.floor(totalMinutes / 60);
  const mins = totalMinutes % 60;
  return mins > 0 ? `${hours}h ${mins}m` : `${hours}h`;
}

function statsLine(label: string, s: Stats, formatter: (n: number) => string = n => fmtNum(n)): string {
  const cvFlag = s.cv > 0.3 ? ' [HIGH VARIANCE]' : '';
  return `  ${pad(label, 22)} mean=${pad(formatter(s.mean), 10)} median=${pad(formatter(s.median), 10)} stddev=${pad(formatter(s.stddev), 10)} range=[${formatter(s.min)}, ${formatter(s.max)}] p5=${formatter(s.p5)} p95=${formatter(s.p95)} CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}${cvFlag}`;
}

function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
  const lines: string[] = [];
  const n = rows.length;

  lines.push('=== Multi-Run Interpretation Report ===');
  lines.push('');

  // 1. Run Overview
  const passCount = rows.filter(r => r.passed).length;
  const totalWallTime = rows.reduce((s, r) => s + r.wallTimeMs, 0);
  lines.push('1. RUN OVERVIEW');
  lines.push(`   Total runs: ${n}`);
  lines.push(`   Pass rate: ${passCount}/${n} (${((passCount / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
  lines.push(`   Total wall time: ${(totalWallTime / 1000).toFixed(0)}s (avg ${(totalWallTime / n / 1000).toFixed(1)}s per run)`);

  const failedRuns = rows.filter(r => !r.passed);
  if (failedRuns.length > 0) {
    lines.push(`   Failed seeds: ${failedRuns.map(r => r.seed).join(', ')}`);
  }
  lines.push('');

  // 2. Statistical Summaries
  lines.push('2. KEY METRICS');
  const metricDefs: Array<{ label: string; getter: (r: SummaryRow) => number; fmt?: (n: number) => string }> = [
    { label: 'Final Money', getter: r => r.finalMoney, fmt: n => `$${fmtNum(n)}` },
    { label: 'Final Revenue/tick', getter: r => r.finalRevenue, fmt: n => `$${fmtNum(n)}` },
    { label: 'Total Revenue', getter: r => r.finalTotalRevenue, fmt: n => `$${fmtNum(n)}` },
    { label: 'Capability', getter: r => r.finalCapability, fmt: n => n.toFixed(1) },
    { label: 'Reputation', getter: r => r.finalReputation, fmt: n => n.toFixed(1) },
    { label: 'Subscribers', getter: r => r.finalSubscribers, fmt: n => fmtNum(n, 0) },
    { label: 'API Developers', getter: r => r.finalDevelopers, fmt: n => fmtNum(n, 0) },
    { label: 'Headcount', getter: r => r.finalHeadcount, fmt: n => String(Math.round(n)) },
    { label: 'Research Count', getter: r => r.finalResearchCount, fmt: n => String(Math.round(n)) },
    { label: 'Models Deployed', getter: r => r.finalModelsDeployed, fmt: n => String(Math.round(n)) },
    { label: 'Revenue Streams', getter: r => r.revenueStreamDiversity, fmt: n => String(Math.round(n)) },
  ];

  const highVarianceMetrics: string[] = [];
  for (const def of metricDefs) {
    const values = rows.map(def.getter);
    const s = computeStats(values);
    lines.push(statsLine(def.label, s, def.fmt));
    if (s.cv > 0.3) highVarianceMetrics.push(def.label);
  }
  lines.push('');

  // 3. Era Transition Timing
  lines.push('3. ERA TRANSITION TIMING');
  const eraTransitions: Array<{ label: string; getter: (r: SummaryRow) => number | null }> = [
    { label: 'Startup → Scale-up', getter: r => r.eraTransition_scaleup },
    { label: 'Scale-up → Big Tech', getter: r => r.eraTransition_bigtech },
    { label: 'Big Tech → AGI', getter: r => r.eraTransition_agi },
  ];

  const inconsistentEras: string[] = [];
  for (const et of eraTransitions) {
    const values = rows.map(et.getter).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
    const reached = values.length;
    if (reached === 0) {
      lines.push(`  ${pad(et.label, 24)} never reached`);
      continue;
    }
    const s = computeStats(values);
    const cvFlag = s.cv > 0.25 ? ' [INCONSISTENT]' : '';
    if (s.cv > 0.25) inconsistentEras.push(et.label);
    lines.push(`  ${pad(et.label, 24)} ${reached}/${n} reached | mean=${formatDuration(s.mean).padStart(6)} median=${formatDuration(s.median).padStart(6)} stddev=${Math.round(s.stddev).toString().padStart(5)}t range=[${formatDuration(s.min)}, ${formatDuration(s.max)}] CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}${cvFlag}`);
  }
  lines.push('');

  // 4. Feature Utilization Consistency
  lines.push('4. FEATURE UTILIZATION');
  const fuCategories = Object.keys(rows[0]?.featureUtilization ?? {});
  const consistentlyLow: string[] = [];
  for (const cat of fuCategories) {
    const values = rows.map(r => r.featureUtilization[cat] ?? 0);
    const s = computeStats(values);
    const bar = '#'.repeat(Math.round(s.mean / 5)) + '-'.repeat(20 - Math.round(s.mean / 5));
    const flag = s.mean < 50 ? ' [LOW]' : '';
    if (s.mean < 50) consistentlyLow.push(cat);
    lines.push(`  ${pad(cat, 16)} [${bar}] mean=${s.mean.toFixed(0)}% stddev=${s.stddev.toFixed(1)}${flag}`);
  }
  lines.push('');

  // 5. System Interconnections
  lines.push('5. SYSTEM INTERCONNECTIONS');
  const icKeys = Object.keys(rows[0]?.interconnections ?? {});
  const weakLinks: string[] = [];
  const deadLinks: string[] = [];
  const inconsistentLinks: string[] = [];

  {
    const overallValues = rows.map(r => r.interconnectionOverall);
    const overallStats = computeStats(overallValues);
    lines.push(`  Overall score: mean=${overallStats.mean.toFixed(1)} stddev=${overallStats.stddev.toFixed(1)} range=[${overallStats.min.toFixed(1)}, ${overallStats.max.toFixed(1)}]`);
  }

  for (const key of icKeys) {
    const values = rows.map(r => r.interconnections[key] ?? 0);
    const s = computeStats(values);
    const label = key.replace(/_/g, ' → ').replace(/([a-z])([A-Z])/g, '$1 $2');
    const bar = '#'.repeat(Math.round(s.mean)) + '-'.repeat(10 - Math.round(s.mean));
    let flag = '';
    if (s.mean === 0) { flag = ' [DEAD]'; deadLinks.push(label); }
    else if (s.mean < 3) { flag = ' [WEAK]'; weakLinks.push(label); }
    if (s.stddev > 3) { flag += ' [INCONSISTENT]'; inconsistentLinks.push(label); }
    lines.push(`  ${pad(label, 30)} [${bar}] mean=${s.mean.toFixed(1)} stddev=${s.stddev.toFixed(1)} min=${s.min}${flag}`);
  }
  lines.push('');

  // 6. Failure Analysis
  lines.push('6. FAILURE ANALYSIS');
  const failureFreq: Record<string, number> = {};
  for (const r of rows) {
    if (!r.failureReasons) continue;
    const seen = new Set<string>();
    for (const reason of r.failureReasons.split('; ').filter(Boolean)) {
      const normalized = reason.replace(/tick \d+/g, 'tick N').replace(/\d+ ticks/g, 'N ticks');
      seen.add(normalized);
    }
    for (const normalized of seen) {
      failureFreq[normalized] = (failureFreq[normalized] ?? 0) + 1;
    }
  }
  const sortedFailures = Object.entries(failureFreq).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
  if (sortedFailures.length === 0) {
    lines.push('  No failures detected across all runs.');
  } else {
    for (const [reason, count] of sortedFailures.slice(0, 10)) {
      lines.push(`  ${((count / n) * 100).toFixed(0).padStart(3)}% (${count}/${n}) ${reason}`);
    }
  }

  const bankruptcyRuns = rows.filter(r => r.bankruptcyRisks > 0).length;
  if (bankruptcyRuns > 0) {
    lines.push(`  Bankruptcy risk: ${bankruptcyRuns}/${n} runs (${((bankruptcyRuns / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
  }
  const sanityFailRuns = rows.filter(r => r.sanityErrors > 0).length;
  if (sanityFailRuns > 0) {
    lines.push(`  Sanity errors: ${sanityFailRuns}/${n} runs (${((sanityFailRuns / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
  }
  lines.push('');

  // 7. Actionable Recommendations
  lines.push('7. RECOMMENDATIONS');
  const recs: string[] = [];

  if (passCount / n < 0.8) {
    const topFailure = sortedFailures[0];
    if (topFailure) {
      recs.push(`Balance is unstable — "${topFailure[0]}" occurs in ${((topFailure[1] / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}% of runs. This is the top priority fix.`);
    }
  }

  for (const cat of consistentlyLow) {
    recs.push(`Feature category "${cat}" has <50% utilization on average — review whether ${cat} features are reachable and worthwhile for the strategy.`);
  }

  for (const link of deadLinks) {
    recs.push(`"${link}" has no measurable effect in any run — investment in the source doesn't translate to improvement in the target.`);
  }
  for (const link of weakLinks) {
    recs.push(`"${link}" is consistently weak (mean <3/10) — the connection exists but is too faint to drive strategy.`);
  }

  for (const metric of highVarianceMetrics) {
    const values = rows.map(metricDefs.find(d => d.label === metric)!.getter);
    const s = computeStats(values);
    recs.push(`"${metric}" is highly seed-dependent (CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}) — outcome is more luck than strategy. Consider tighter guardrails.`);
  }

  for (const era of inconsistentEras) {
    recs.push(`"${era}" transition timing is inconsistent (CV>0.25) — suggests a fragile threshold crossing that depends on RNG luck.`);
  }

  if (passCount === n && recs.length === 0) {
    recs.push('All runs passed with consistent results. Balance looks stable across seeds.');
  }

  for (let i = 0; i < recs.length; i++) {
    lines.push(`  ${i + 1}. ${recs[i]}`);
  }
  lines.push('');

  return lines.join('\n');
}

const csvContent = readFileSync(summaryPath, 'utf-8');
const rows = parseSummaryCsv(csvContent);

if (rows.length === 0) {
  console.error('No data found in summary CSV.');
  process.exit(1);
}

const report = generateReport(rows);

if (outPath) {
  writeFileSync(outPath, report);
  console.log(`Report written to ${outPath}`);
} else {
  console.log(report);
}