AIHostingTycoon/packages/game-engine/src/systems/market/tamSystem.ts

import type {
  TotalAddressableMarket,
  TAMSegmentId,
  MarketShareEntry,
  Competitor,
  Era,
  ObsolescenceState,
  DeveloperEcosystem,
} from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
import {
  TAM_BASE_SIZES,
  TAM_GROWTH_PER_TICK,
  SHARE_TEMPERATURE,
  SHARE_MIGRATION_SPEED,
  ATTRACTIVENESS_WEIGHTS,
  OBSOLESCENCE_PENALTY_WEIGHT,
  NEW_MODEL_BOOST_VALUE,
  CONSUMER_TIER_BASE_PERCEIVED_VALUE,
  PERCEIVED_VALUE_REPUTATION_RANGE,
} from '@ai-tycoon/shared';

export interface ParticipantProfile {
  id: string;
  qualityScore: number;
  priceScore: number;
  reputation: number;
  ecosystemScore: number;
  freshness: number;
  hasFreeTier: boolean;
}

function computeTamPriceScore(price: number, qualityScore: number, reputation: number): number {
  if (price <= 0) return 1;
  const repRange = PERCEIVED_VALUE_REPUTATION_RANGE;
  const repMult = repRange.min + (Math.max(0, Math.min(100, reputation)) / 100) * (repRange.max - repRange.min);
  const refPV = CONSUMER_TIER_BASE_PERCEIVED_VALUE.plus * qualityScore * repMult;
  if (refPV <= 0) return 0;
  const ratio = price / refPV;
  return 1 / (1 + ratio * ratio);
}

export function buildPlayerProfile(
  qualityScore: number,
  chatPrice: number,
  apiOutputPrice: number,
  reputation: number,
  ecosystem: DeveloperEcosystem,
  obsolescence: ObsolescenceState,
  hasFreeTier: boolean,
): ParticipantProfile {
  const priceScore = computeTamPriceScore(chatPrice, qualityScore, reputation);

  let freshness = obsolescence.playerModelFreshness;
  if (obsolescence.newModelBoostRemaining > 0) {
    freshness = Math.min(1, freshness + NEW_MODEL_BOOST_VALUE);
  }

  return {
    id: 'player',
    qualityScore: Math.min(1, qualityScore),
    priceScore,
    reputation,
    ecosystemScore: ecosystem.ecosystemScore,
    freshness,
    hasFreeTier,
  };
}

export function buildCompetitorProfile(c: Competitor): ParticipantProfile {
  const compQuality = Math.min(1, c.estimatedCapability / 100);
  const priceScore = computeTamPriceScore(c.products.chatPrice, compQuality, c.reputation);

  return {
    id: c.id,
    qualityScore: Math.min(1, c.estimatedCapability / 100),
    priceScore,
    reputation: c.reputation,
    ecosystemScore: c.developerEcosystemScore,
    freshness: c.modelFreshness,
    hasFreeTier: c.products.hasFreeTier,
  };
}

function computeAttractiveness(
  p: ParticipantProfile,
  segment: TAMSegmentId,
  qualityBaseline: number,
): number {
  const w = ATTRACTIVENESS_WEIGHTS[segment];
  let score =
    w.quality * p.qualityScore +
    w.price * p.priceScore +
    w.reputation * (p.reputation / 100) +
    w.ecosystem * (p.ecosystemScore / 100) +
    w.freshness * p.freshness +
    w.freeTier * (p.hasFreeTier ? 1 : 0);

  const qualityGap = qualityBaseline / 100 - p.qualityScore;
  if (qualityGap > 0) {
    score -= qualityGap * OBSOLESCENCE_PENALTY_WEIGHT;
  }

  return Math.max(0.01, score);
}

export function computeMarketShares(
  tam: TotalAddressableMarket,
  participants: ParticipantProfile[],
  qualityBaseline: number,
): TotalAddressableMarket {
  const segments = { ...tam.segments };
  const segmentIds: TAMSegmentId[] = ['consumer', 'developer', 'enterprise', 'government'];
  const n = participants.length;
  const scores = new Array<number>(n);
  const targetShares = new Array<number>(n);

  for (const segId of segmentIds) {
    const seg = segments[segId];

    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
      scores[i] = computeAttractiveness(participants[i], segId, qualityBaseline);
    }

    // Inline softmax
    let maxScore = scores[0];
    for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) { if (scores[i] > maxScore) maxScore = scores[i]; }
    let sumExp = 0;
    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
      targetShares[i] = Math.exp((scores[i] - maxScore) * SHARE_TEMPERATURE);
      sumExp += targetShares[i];
    }
    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) { targetShares[i] /= sumExp; }

    const oldShareMap = new Map<string, MarketShareEntry>();
    for (const entry of seg.shares) {
      oldShareMap.set(entry.playerId, entry);
    }

    const newShares: MarketShareEntry[] = new Array(n);
    let totalShare = 0;
    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
      const p = participants[i];
      const old = oldShareMap.get(p.id);
      const oldShare = old?.sharePercent ?? 0;
      const migratedShare = oldShare + (targetShares[i] - oldShare) * SHARE_MIGRATION_SPEED;
      totalShare += migratedShare;
      newShares[i] = {
        playerId: p.id,
        sharePercent: migratedShare,
        customers: 0,
        attractivenessScore: scores[i],
      };
    }

    if (totalShare > 0) {
      for (const entry of newShares) {
        entry.sharePercent /= totalShare;
        entry.customers = Math.floor(entry.sharePercent * seg.totalSize);
      }
    }

    segments[segId] = { ...seg, shares: newShares };
  }

  return { segments };
}

export function updateTAMGrowth(tam: TotalAddressableMarket, era: Era): TotalAddressableMarket {
  const baseSizes = TAM_BASE_SIZES[era];
  const segments = { ...tam.segments };
  const segmentIds: TAMSegmentId[] = ['consumer', 'developer', 'enterprise', 'government'];

  for (const segId of segmentIds) {
    const seg = segments[segId];
    const base = baseSizes[segId];
    const grown = seg.totalSize + seg.totalSize * TAM_GROWTH_PER_TICK;
    segments[segId] = { ...seg, totalSize: Math.max(base, grown) };
  }

  return { segments };
}

export function initializeTAM(era: Era, competitors: Competitor[]): TotalAddressableMarket {
  const baseSizes = TAM_BASE_SIZES[era];
  const segmentIds: TAMSegmentId[] = ['consumer', 'developer', 'enterprise', 'government'];
  const segments = {} as Record<TAMSegmentId, { totalSize: number; shares: MarketShareEntry[] }>;

  for (const segId of segmentIds) {
    const shares: MarketShareEntry[] = [
      { playerId: 'player', sharePercent: 0.05, customers: 0, attractivenessScore: 0 },
      ...competitors.map(c => ({
        playerId: c.id,
        sharePercent: c.marketShares[segId] ?? 0.1,
        customers: 0,
        attractivenessScore: 0,
      })),
    ];

    const totalShare = shares.reduce((s, e) => s + e.sharePercent, 0);
    for (const entry of shares) {
      entry.sharePercent /= totalShare;
      entry.customers = Math.floor(entry.sharePercent * baseSizes[segId]);
    }

    segments[segId] = { totalSize: baseSizes[segId], shares };
  }

  return { segments };
}