Expand multirun reporting: health summary, era durations, serving diagnostics, cash-flow detail

Propagate per-era duration/bottleneck, serving utilization, cash-flow nadir/peak,
and late-game revenue growth through the worker→CSV→interpret pipeline. Add
simulation health archetype classification, per-era bottleneck frequency,
unused-feature frequency table, failed-run AGI gate analysis, and log-scale
variance for exponential metrics. All new CSV columns parse defensively for
backward compatibility with older summary files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

packages/game-simulation/src/interpret.ts

@@ -16,6 +16,13 @@ if (!summaryPath) {
   process.exit(1);
 }
 
+// --- AGI gate thresholds (must match ERA_THRESHOLDS in gameBalance.ts) ---
+const AGI_GATES = {
+  capability: 93,
+  revenue: 1_000_000_000,
+  reputation: 80,
+};
+
 interface SummaryRow {
   runId: number;
   seed: number;
@@ -42,6 +49,24 @@ interface SummaryRow {
   bankruptcyRisks: number;
   sanityErrors: number;
   failureReasons: string;
+  // New pipeline fields (may be absent in old CSVs)
+  duration_startup: number | null;
+  duration_scaleup: number | null;
+  duration_bigtech: number | null;
+  duration_agi: number | null;
+  bottleneck_scaleup: string;
+  bottleneck_bigtech: string;
+  bottleneck_agi: string;
+  servingMeanUtil: number | null;
+  servingPctOverloaded: number | null;
+  servingPctUnderloaded: number | null;
+  servingPeakUtil: number | null;
+  cashMinAmount: number | null;
+  cashMinTick: number | null;
+  cashPeakAmount: number | null;
+  cashPeakTick: number | null;
+  lateGameRevenueGrowthRate: number | null;
+  unusedFeatures: string;
 }
 
 function parseSummaryCsv(content: string): SummaryRow[] {
@@ -50,10 +75,20 @@ function parseSummaryCsv(content: string): SummaryRow[] {
   const headers = lines[0].split(',');
   const rows: SummaryRow[] = [];
 
+  const hasCol = (name: string): boolean => headers.indexOf(name) >= 0;
+
   for (let i = 1; i < lines.length; i++) {
     const values = parseCSVLine(lines[i]);
-    const get = (name: string): string => values[headers.indexOf(name)] ?? '';
+    const get = (name: string): string => {
+      const idx = headers.indexOf(name);
+      return idx >= 0 ? (values[idx] ?? '') : '';
+    };
     const num = (name: string): number => { const v = get(name); return v === '' ? 0 : Number(v); };
+    const numOrNull = (name: string): number | null => {
+      if (!hasCol(name)) return null;
+      const v = get(name);
+      return v === '' ? null : Number(v);
+    };
 
     const fuCategories: Record<string, number> = {};
     const icLinks: Record<string, number> = {};
@@ -93,6 +128,23 @@ function parseSummaryCsv(content: string): SummaryRow[] {
       bankruptcyRisks: num('bankruptcyRisks'),
       sanityErrors: num('sanityErrors'),
       failureReasons: get('failureReasons').replace(/^"|"$/g, ''),
+      duration_startup: numOrNull('duration_startup'),
+      duration_scaleup: numOrNull('duration_scaleup'),
+      duration_bigtech: numOrNull('duration_bigtech'),
+      duration_agi: numOrNull('duration_agi'),
+      bottleneck_scaleup: get('bottleneck_scaleup'),
+      bottleneck_bigtech: get('bottleneck_bigtech'),
+      bottleneck_agi: get('bottleneck_agi'),
+      servingMeanUtil: numOrNull('servingMeanUtil'),
+      servingPctOverloaded: numOrNull('servingPctOverloaded'),
+      servingPctUnderloaded: numOrNull('servingPctUnderloaded'),
+      servingPeakUtil: numOrNull('servingPeakUtil'),
+      cashMinAmount: numOrNull('cashMinAmount'),
+      cashMinTick: numOrNull('cashMinTick'),
+      cashPeakAmount: numOrNull('cashPeakAmount'),
+      cashPeakTick: numOrNull('cashPeakTick'),
+      lateGameRevenueGrowthRate: numOrNull('lateGameRevenueGrowthRate'),
+      unusedFeatures: get('unusedFeatures').replace(/^"|"$/g, ''),
     });
   }
   return rows;
@@ -135,12 +187,15 @@ interface Stats {
   min: number;
   max: number;
   p5: number;
+  p25: number;
+  p75: number;
   p95: number;
   cv: number;
+  logCv: number;
 }
 
 function computeStats(values: number[]): Stats {
-  if (values.length === 0) return { mean: 0, median: 0, stddev: 0, min: 0, max: 0, p5: 0, p95: 0, cv: 0 };
+  if (values.length === 0) return { mean: 0, median: 0, stddev: 0, min: 0, max: 0, p5: 0, p25: 0, p75: 0, p95: 0, cv: 0, logCv: 0 };
   const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
   const n = sorted.length;
   const mean = sorted.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n;
@@ -150,9 +205,21 @@ function computeStats(values: number[]): Stats {
   const min = sorted[0];
   const max = sorted[n - 1];
   const p5 = sorted[Math.floor(n * 0.05)] ?? min;
+  const p25 = sorted[Math.floor(n * 0.25)] ?? min;
+  const p75 = sorted[Math.min(Math.floor(n * 0.75), n - 1)] ?? max;
   const p95 = sorted[Math.min(Math.floor(n * 0.95), n - 1)] ?? max;
   const cv = mean !== 0 ? stddev / Math.abs(mean) : 0;
-  return { mean, median, stddev, min, max, p5, p95, cv };
+
+  let logCv = 0;
+  const positiveValues = values.filter(v => v > 0);
+  if (positiveValues.length > 1) {
+    const logValues = positiveValues.map(v => Math.log(v));
+    const logMean = logValues.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / logValues.length;
+    const logVariance = logValues.reduce((sum, v) => sum + (v - logMean) ** 2, 0) / logValues.length;
+    logCv = logMean !== 0 ? Math.sqrt(logVariance) / Math.abs(logMean) : 0;
+  }
+
+  return { mean, median, stddev, min, max, p5, p25, p75, p95, cv, logCv };
 }
 
 function fmtNum(n: number, decimals = 1): string {
@@ -174,33 +241,87 @@ function formatDuration(ticks: number): string {
   return mins > 0 ? `${hours}h ${mins}m` : `${hours}h`;
 }
 
+function pct(n: number): string {
+  return `${(n * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
+}
+
+const MONETARY_LABELS = new Set(['Final Money', 'Final Revenue/tick', 'Total Revenue']);
+
 function statsLine(label: string, s: Stats, formatter: (n: number) => string = n => fmtNum(n)): string {
-  const cvFlag = s.cv > 0.3 ? ' [HIGH VARIANCE]' : '';
-  return `  ${pad(label, 22)} mean=${pad(formatter(s.mean), 10)} median=${pad(formatter(s.median), 10)} stddev=${pad(formatter(s.stddev), 10)} range=[${formatter(s.min)}, ${formatter(s.max)}] p5=${formatter(s.p5)} p95=${formatter(s.p95)} CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}${cvFlag}`;
+  const isMonetary = MONETARY_LABELS.has(label);
+  const varianceMeasure = isMonetary ? s.logCv : s.cv;
+  const varianceThreshold = isMonetary ? 0.15 : 0.3;
+  const varianceLabel = isMonetary ? 'logCV' : 'CV';
+  const cvFlag = varianceMeasure > varianceThreshold ? ' [HIGH VARIANCE]' : '';
+  return `  ${pad(label, 22)} mean=${pad(formatter(s.mean), 10)} median=${pad(formatter(s.median), 10)} stddev=${pad(formatter(s.stddev), 10)} range=[${formatter(s.min)}, ${formatter(s.max)}] p5=${formatter(s.p5)} p95=${formatter(s.p95)} ${varianceLabel}=${varianceMeasure.toFixed(2)}${cvFlag}`;
+}
+
+function classifyRun(row: SummaryRow, totalTicks: number): string {
+  if (!row.passed) {
+    if (row.eraTransition_bigtech === null) return 'early_failure';
+    return 'late_failure';
+  }
+  const agiTick = row.eraTransition_agi;
+  if (agiTick !== null) {
+    if (agiTick < totalTicks * 0.5) return 'fast_pass';
+    if (agiTick < totalTicks * 0.75) return 'clean_pass';
+    return 'late_bloomer';
+  }
+  return 'clean_pass';
 }
 
 function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
   const lines: string[] = [];
   const n = rows.length;
+  const passCount = rows.filter(r => r.passed).length;
+  const failedRuns = rows.filter(r => !r.passed);
+
+  // Estimate totalTicks from the max eraTransition or walltime pattern
+  const maxTransitionTick = Math.max(
+    ...rows.map(r => r.eraTransition_agi ?? r.eraTransition_bigtech ?? r.eraTransition_scaleup ?? 0),
+  );
+  const estimatedTotalTicks = maxTransitionTick > 20000 ? 28800 : maxTransitionTick > 10000 ? 14400 : 7200;
 
   lines.push('=== Multi-Run Interpretation Report ===');
   lines.push('');
 
+  // 0. Simulation Health Summary
+  const archetypes: Record<string, number> = {};
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    const type = classifyRun(r, estimatedTotalTicks);
+    archetypes[type] = (archetypes[type] ?? 0) + 1;
+  }
+
+  lines.push('0. SIMULATION HEALTH');
+  const parts: string[] = [];
+  if (archetypes.fast_pass) parts.push(`${archetypes.fast_pass} fast`);
+  if (archetypes.clean_pass) parts.push(`${archetypes.clean_pass} clean`);
+  if (archetypes.late_bloomer) parts.push(`${archetypes.late_bloomer} late bloomers`);
+  const failCount = (archetypes.early_failure ?? 0) + (archetypes.late_failure ?? 0);
+  if (failCount > 0) parts.push(`${failCount} failed`);
+  lines.push(`   ${n} runs: ${parts.join(', ')}`);
+
+  if (failCount > 0) {
+    const failDetail: string[] = [];
+    if (archetypes.early_failure) failDetail.push(`${archetypes.early_failure} stuck before Big Tech`);
+    if (archetypes.late_failure) failDetail.push(`${archetypes.late_failure} stuck in Big Tech`);
+    lines.push(`   Failures: ${failDetail.join(', ')}`);
+  }
+  lines.push('');
+
   // 1. Run Overview
-  const passCount = rows.filter(r => r.passed).length;
   const totalWallTime = rows.reduce((s, r) => s + r.wallTimeMs, 0);
   lines.push('1. RUN OVERVIEW');
   lines.push(`   Total runs: ${n}`);
   lines.push(`   Pass rate: ${passCount}/${n} (${((passCount / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
   lines.push(`   Total wall time: ${(totalWallTime / 1000).toFixed(0)}s (avg ${(totalWallTime / n / 1000).toFixed(1)}s per run)`);
 
-  const failedRuns = rows.filter(r => !r.passed);
   if (failedRuns.length > 0) {
     lines.push(`   Failed seeds: ${failedRuns.map(r => r.seed).join(', ')}`);
   }
   lines.push('');
 
-  // 2. Statistical Summaries
+  // 2. Key Metrics
   lines.push('2. KEY METRICS');
   const metricDefs: Array<{ label: string; getter: (r: SummaryRow) => number; fmt?: (n: number) => string }> = [
     { label: 'Final Money', getter: r => r.finalMoney, fmt: n => `$${fmtNum(n)}` },
@@ -216,12 +337,23 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
     { label: 'Revenue Streams', getter: r => r.revenueStreamDiversity, fmt: n => String(Math.round(n)) },
   ];
 
+  // Add late-game revenue growth if available
+  const hasLateGrowth = rows.some(r => r.lateGameRevenueGrowthRate !== null);
+  if (hasLateGrowth) {
+    metricDefs.push({
+      label: 'Late Rev Growth/tick',
+      getter: r => r.lateGameRevenueGrowthRate ?? 0,
+      fmt: n => pct(n),
+    });
+  }
+
   const highVarianceMetrics: string[] = [];
   for (const def of metricDefs) {
     const values = rows.map(def.getter);
     const s = computeStats(values);
     lines.push(statsLine(def.label, s, def.fmt));
-    if (s.cv > 0.3) highVarianceMetrics.push(def.label);
+    const isMonetary = MONETARY_LABELS.has(def.label);
+    if (isMonetary ? s.logCv > 0.15 : s.cv > 0.3) highVarianceMetrics.push(def.label);
   }
   lines.push('');
 
@@ -244,11 +376,45 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
     const s = computeStats(values);
     const cvFlag = s.cv > 0.25 ? ' [INCONSISTENT]' : '';
     if (s.cv > 0.25) inconsistentEras.push(et.label);
-    lines.push(`  ${pad(et.label, 24)} ${reached}/${n} reached | mean=${formatDuration(s.mean).padStart(6)} median=${formatDuration(s.median).padStart(6)} stddev=${Math.round(s.stddev).toString().padStart(5)}t range=[${formatDuration(s.min)}, ${formatDuration(s.max)}] CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}${cvFlag}`);
+    lines.push(`  ${pad(et.label, 24)} ${reached}/${n} reached | mean=${formatDuration(s.mean).padStart(6)} median=${formatDuration(s.median).padStart(6)} p25=${formatDuration(s.p25).padStart(6)} p75=${formatDuration(s.p75).padStart(6)} range=[${formatDuration(s.min)}, ${formatDuration(s.max)}] CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}${cvFlag}`);
   }
   lines.push('');
 
-  // 4. Feature Utilization Consistency
+  // 3B. Per-Era Duration
+  const hasEraDurations = rows.some(r => r.duration_startup !== null);
+  if (hasEraDurations) {
+    lines.push('3B. PER-ERA DURATION');
+    const eraDurations: Array<{ label: string; getter: (r: SummaryRow) => number | null; bottleneckGetter?: (r: SummaryRow) => string }> = [
+      { label: 'Startup', getter: r => r.duration_startup },
+      { label: 'Scale-up', getter: r => r.duration_scaleup, bottleneckGetter: r => r.bottleneck_scaleup },
+      { label: 'Big Tech', getter: r => r.duration_bigtech, bottleneckGetter: r => r.bottleneck_bigtech },
+      { label: 'AGI', getter: r => r.duration_agi, bottleneckGetter: r => r.bottleneck_agi },
+    ];
+
+    for (const ed of eraDurations) {
+      const values = rows.map(ed.getter).filter((v): v is number => v !== null && v > 0);
+      if (values.length === 0) {
+        lines.push(`  ${pad(ed.label, 14)} no data`);
+        continue;
+      }
+      const s = computeStats(values);
+      lines.push(`  ${pad(ed.label, 14)} ${values.length}/${n} runs | mean=${formatDuration(s.mean).padStart(6)} median=${formatDuration(s.median).padStart(6)} p25=${formatDuration(s.p25).padStart(6)} p75=${formatDuration(s.p75).padStart(6)} range=[${formatDuration(s.min)}, ${formatDuration(s.max)}]`);
+
+      if (ed.bottleneckGetter) {
+        const bottlenecks = rows.map(ed.bottleneckGetter).filter(Boolean);
+        if (bottlenecks.length > 0) {
+          const freq: Record<string, number> = {};
+          for (const b of bottlenecks) freq[b] = (freq[b] ?? 0) + 1;
+          const sorted = Object.entries(freq).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+          const parts = sorted.map(([gate, count]) => `${gate}: ${((count / bottlenecks.length) * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
+          lines.push(`  ${pad('', 14)} exit bottleneck: ${parts.join(', ')}`);
+        }
+      }
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+  }
+
+  // 4. Feature Utilization
   lines.push('4. FEATURE UTILIZATION');
   const fuCategories = Object.keys(rows[0]?.featureUtilization ?? {});
   const consistentlyLow: string[] = [];
@@ -260,6 +426,25 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
     if (s.mean < 50) consistentlyLow.push(cat);
     lines.push(`  ${pad(cat, 16)} [${bar}] mean=${s.mean.toFixed(0)}% stddev=${s.stddev.toFixed(1)}${flag}`);
   }
+
+  // Unused features frequency table
+  const hasUnusedFeatures = rows.some(r => r.unusedFeatures.length > 0);
+  if (hasUnusedFeatures) {
+    const skipFreq: Record<string, number> = {};
+    for (const r of rows) {
+      for (const feat of r.unusedFeatures.split(';').filter(Boolean)) {
+        skipFreq[feat] = (skipFreq[feat] ?? 0) + 1;
+      }
+    }
+    const sortedSkips = Object.entries(skipFreq).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+    if (sortedSkips.length > 0) {
+      lines.push('');
+      lines.push('  Most-skipped features:');
+      for (const [feat, count] of sortedSkips.slice(0, 15)) {
+        lines.push(`    ${String(count).padStart(3)}/${n} (${((count / n) * 100).toFixed(0).padStart(2)}%) ${feat}`);
+      }
+    }
+  }
   lines.push('');
 
   // 5. System Interconnections
@@ -267,7 +452,6 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
   const icKeys = Object.keys(rows[0]?.interconnections ?? {});
   const weakLinks: string[] = [];
   const deadLinks: string[] = [];
-  const inconsistentLinks: string[] = [];
 
   {
     const overallValues = rows.map(r => r.interconnectionOverall);
@@ -283,11 +467,46 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
     let flag = '';
     if (s.mean === 0) { flag = ' [DEAD]'; deadLinks.push(label); }
     else if (s.mean < 3) { flag = ' [WEAK]'; weakLinks.push(label); }
-    if (s.stddev > 3) { flag += ' [INCONSISTENT]'; inconsistentLinks.push(label); }
+    if (s.stddev > 3) { flag += ' [INCONSISTENT]'; }
     lines.push(`  ${pad(label, 30)} [${bar}] mean=${s.mean.toFixed(1)} stddev=${s.stddev.toFixed(1)} min=${s.min}${flag}`);
   }
   lines.push('');
 
+  // 5B. Serving Infrastructure
+  const hasServing = rows.some(r => r.servingMeanUtil !== null);
+  let servingOverloaded = false;
+  let servingUnderloaded = false;
+  if (hasServing) {
+    lines.push('5B. SERVING INFRASTRUCTURE');
+    const meanUtils = rows.map(r => r.servingMeanUtil).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+    const overloaded = rows.map(r => r.servingPctOverloaded).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+    const underloaded = rows.map(r => r.servingPctUnderloaded).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+    const peaks = rows.map(r => r.servingPeakUtil).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+
+    if (meanUtils.length > 0) {
+      const sMean = computeStats(meanUtils);
+      const sOver = computeStats(overloaded);
+      const sUnder = computeStats(underloaded);
+      const sPeak = computeStats(peaks);
+
+      lines.push(`  Mean utilization:   median=${pct(sMean.median).padStart(4)} mean=${pct(sMean.mean).padStart(4)} range=[${pct(sMean.min)}, ${pct(sMean.max)}]`);
+      lines.push(`  % ticks overloaded: median=${pct(sOver.median).padStart(4)} mean=${pct(sOver.mean).padStart(4)} range=[${pct(sOver.min)}, ${pct(sOver.max)}]`);
+      lines.push(`  % ticks underused:  median=${pct(sUnder.median).padStart(4)} mean=${pct(sUnder.mean).padStart(4)} range=[${pct(sUnder.min)}, ${pct(sUnder.max)}]`);
+      lines.push(`  Peak utilization:   median=${pct(sPeak.median).padStart(4)} mean=${pct(sPeak.mean).padStart(4)} range=[${pct(sPeak.min)}, ${pct(sPeak.max)}]`);
+
+      if (sOver.median > 0.5) {
+        lines.push(`  >> Diagnosis: Chronic overload — demand exceeds capacity ${pct(sOver.median)} of the time`);
+        servingOverloaded = true;
+      } else if (sUnder.median > 0.5) {
+        lines.push(`  >> Diagnosis: Chronic underutilization — capacity idle ${pct(sUnder.median)} of the time`);
+        servingUnderloaded = true;
+      } else if (sOver.median > 0.2 && sUnder.median > 0.2) {
+        lines.push(`  >> Diagnosis: Volatile — swings between overload (${pct(sOver.median)}) and underuse (${pct(sUnder.median)})`);
+      }
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+  }
+
   // 6. Failure Analysis
   lines.push('6. FAILURE ANALYSIS');
   const failureFreq: Record<string, number> = {};
@@ -311,17 +530,65 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
     }
   }
 
-  const bankruptcyRuns = rows.filter(r => r.bankruptcyRisks > 0).length;
-  if (bankruptcyRuns > 0) {
-    lines.push(`  Bankruptcy risk: ${bankruptcyRuns}/${n} runs (${((bankruptcyRuns / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
+  // Failed run detail with gate analysis
+  if (failedRuns.length > 0) {
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('  Failed run detail (vs AGI gates: capability≥93, revenue≥$1B, reputation≥80):');
+    const gateBlockers: Record<string, number> = {};
+    for (const r of failedRuns) {
+      const gates = [
+        { name: 'capability', current: r.finalCapability, required: AGI_GATES.capability, fmt: (n: number) => n.toFixed(1) },
+        { name: 'revenue', current: r.finalTotalRevenue, required: AGI_GATES.revenue, fmt: (n: number) => `$${fmtNum(n)}` },
+        { name: 'reputation', current: r.finalReputation, required: AGI_GATES.reputation, fmt: (n: number) => n.toFixed(1) },
+      ];
+      const unmet = gates.filter(g => g.current < g.required);
+      const blocking = unmet.length > 0
+        ? unmet.reduce((a, b) => (a.current / a.required < b.current / b.required) ? a : b)
+        : null;
+
+      const gateStrs = gates.map(g => {
+        const pctComplete = Math.min(100, (g.current / g.required) * 100);
+        const marker = g.current >= g.required ? '✓' : '✗';
+        return `${g.name}=${g.fmt(g.current)} (${pctComplete.toFixed(0)}%) ${marker}`;
+      });
+
+      lines.push(`    seed ${r.seed}: ${gateStrs.join(' | ')}${blocking ? ` — blocked by ${blocking.name}` : ''}`);
+      if (blocking) gateBlockers[blocking.name] = (gateBlockers[blocking.name] ?? 0) + 1;
+    }
+    if (Object.keys(gateBlockers).length > 0) {
+      const sorted = Object.entries(gateBlockers).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+      lines.push(`    Blocking gate frequency: ${sorted.map(([g, c]) => `${g}: ${c}/${failedRuns.length}`).join(', ')}`);
+    }
   }
+
+  // Cash-flow nadir
+  const hasCashNadir = rows.some(r => r.cashMinAmount !== null);
+  if (hasCashNadir) {
+    const nadirAmounts = rows.map(r => r.cashMinAmount).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+    const nadirTicks = rows.map(r => r.cashMinTick).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+    const peakAmounts = rows.map(r => r.cashPeakAmount).filter((v): v is number => v !== null);
+    if (nadirAmounts.length > 0) {
+      lines.push('');
+      const sNadir = computeStats(nadirAmounts);
+      const sNadirTick = computeStats(nadirTicks);
+      const sPeak = computeStats(peakAmounts);
+      lines.push(`  Cash nadir: median $${fmtNum(sNadir.median)} at ${formatDuration(sNadirTick.median)} | mean $${fmtNum(sNadir.mean)} at ${formatDuration(sNadirTick.mean)}`);
+      lines.push(`  Cash peak:  median $${fmtNum(sPeak.median)} | mean $${fmtNum(sPeak.mean)}`);
+    }
+  } else {
+    const bankruptcyRuns = rows.filter(r => r.bankruptcyRisks > 0).length;
+    if (bankruptcyRuns > 0) {
+      lines.push(`  Bankruptcy risk: ${bankruptcyRuns}/${n} runs (${((bankruptcyRuns / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
+    }
+  }
+
   const sanityFailRuns = rows.filter(r => r.sanityErrors > 0).length;
   if (sanityFailRuns > 0) {
     lines.push(`  Sanity errors: ${sanityFailRuns}/${n} runs (${((sanityFailRuns / n) * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
   }
   lines.push('');
 
-  // 7. Actionable Recommendations
+  // 7. Recommendations
   lines.push('7. RECOMMENDATIONS');
   const recs: string[] = [];
 
@@ -343,16 +610,47 @@ function generateReport(rows: SummaryRow[]): string {
     recs.push(`"${link}" is consistently weak (mean <3/10) — the connection exists but is too faint to drive strategy.`);
   }
 
+  if (servingOverloaded) {
+    recs.push('Serving infrastructure is chronically overloaded — demand exceeds capacity for most of the game. Consider faster compute scaling or demand throttling.');
+  }
+  if (servingUnderloaded) {
+    recs.push('Serving infrastructure is chronically underutilized — compute capacity vastly exceeds demand. Consider slowing infrastructure investment or accelerating user growth.');
+  }
+
   for (const metric of highVarianceMetrics) {
-    const values = rows.map(metricDefs.find(d => d.label === metric)!.getter);
+    const def = metricDefs.find(d => d.label === metric)!;
+    const values = rows.map(def.getter);
     const s = computeStats(values);
-    recs.push(`"${metric}" is highly seed-dependent (CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}) — outcome is more luck than strategy. Consider tighter guardrails.`);
+    const isMonetary = MONETARY_LABELS.has(metric);
+    const measure = isMonetary ? `logCV=${s.logCv.toFixed(2)}` : `CV=${s.cv.toFixed(2)}`;
+    recs.push(`"${metric}" is highly seed-dependent (${measure}) — outcome is more luck than strategy.`);
   }
 
   for (const era of inconsistentEras) {
     recs.push(`"${era}" transition timing is inconsistent (CV>0.25) — suggests a fragile threshold crossing that depends on RNG luck.`);
   }
 
+  // Gate-specific recommendation if failures share a common blocker
+  if (failedRuns.length > 0) {
+    const gateBlockers: Record<string, number> = {};
+    for (const r of failedRuns) {
+      const gates = [
+        { name: 'capability', current: r.finalCapability, required: AGI_GATES.capability },
+        { name: 'revenue', current: r.finalTotalRevenue, required: AGI_GATES.revenue },
+        { name: 'reputation', current: r.finalReputation, required: AGI_GATES.reputation },
+      ];
+      const unmet = gates.filter(g => g.current < g.required);
+      const blocking = unmet.length > 0
+        ? unmet.reduce((a, b) => (a.current / a.required < b.current / b.required) ? a : b)
+        : null;
+      if (blocking) gateBlockers[blocking.name] = (gateBlockers[blocking.name] ?? 0) + 1;
+    }
+    const dominant = Object.entries(gateBlockers).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0];
+    if (dominant && dominant[1] / failedRuns.length > 0.5) {
+      recs.push(`${dominant[1]}/${failedRuns.length} failures blocked by ${dominant[0]} gate — this is the primary balance bottleneck for AGI transition.`);
+    }
+  }
+
   if (passCount === n && recs.length === 0) {
     recs.push('All runs passed with consistent results. Balance looks stable across seeds.');
   }