Add research money costs, longer research times, era-scaled talent costs, and persona strategy
Balance Check / balance-simulation (push) Successful in 11m19s
Balance Check / multi-run-balance (push) Has been cancelled
CI / build-and-push (push) Successful in 40s

Research now costs money (drained per-tick) with ~2.5-3.5x longer durations by category.
Early-game talent budget costs reduced via era multiplier (startup 0.2x → bigtech 1.0x).
New seed-driven PersonaStrategy with 8 axes of variation for meaningful multi-run testing.
CI multi-run switched from greedy to persona strategy.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-04-26 16:14:27 -04:00
parent b906592af4
commit 416b6bfe8d
14 changed files with 721 additions and 64 deletions
@@ -316,14 +316,18 @@ export class GreedyStrategy implements Strategy {
return pb - pa;
});
const best = sorted[0];
actions.startResearch(state, {
researchId: best.id,
progressTicks: 0,
totalTicks: best.cost.ticks,
allocatedResearchers: 0,
allocatedCompute: 0,
});
for (const candidate of sorted) {
if (!cashSafe(state, candidate.cost.money, 50)) continue;
actions.startResearch(state, {
researchId: candidate.id,
progressTicks: 0,
totalTicks: candidate.cost.ticks,
allocatedResearchers: 0,
allocatedCompute: 0,
moneySpent: 0,
});
return;
}
}
private tryHireTalent(state: GameState): void {
@@ -0,0 +1,599 @@
import type { GameState, Era, RackSkuId } from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
import {
RACK_SKU_CONFIGS, DC_TIER_CONFIGS, COOLING_ORDER,
PARAMETER_OPTIONS, DEFAULT_DATA_MIX,
MAX_CONCURRENT_TRAINING, PRETRAINING_BASE_TICKS,
CLUSTER_COST_CONFIG, LOCATION_CONFIGS, maxComputeRacks,
VRAM_REQUIREMENTS_BY_GENERATION,
} from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
import {
canRaiseFunding, getNextFundingRound, getAvailableResearch, TECH_TREE,
} from '@ai-tycoon/game-engine';
import * as actions from '../actions';
import type { Strategy, SimulationMetrics } from './types';
const ERA_ORDER: Era[] = ['startup', 'scaleup', 'bigtech', 'agi'];
interface PersonaProfile {
riskTolerance: number;
researchFocus: number;
talentBias: { research: number; engineering: number; operations: number; sales: number };
modelAmbition: number;
pricingAggression: number;
infraStrategy: number;
expansionTiming: number;
safetyWeight: number;
}
function hashDimension(seed: number, dimensionIndex: number): number {
let h = (seed + dimensionIndex * 0x9E3779B9) | 0;
h = Math.imul(h ^ (h >>> 16), 0x45D9F3B);
h = Math.imul(h ^ (h >>> 13), 0x45D9F3B);
return ((h ^ (h >>> 16)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
}
function lerp(min: number, max: number, t: number): number {
return min + (max - min) * t;
}
function generatePersona(seed: number): PersonaProfile {
const riskTolerance = lerp(0.3, 1.0, hashDimension(seed, 0));
const researchFocus = Math.floor(hashDimension(seed, 1) * 5);
const modelAmbition = lerp(0.4, 1.0, hashDimension(seed, 2));
const pricingAggression = lerp(0.5, 2.0, hashDimension(seed, 3));
const infraStrategy = Math.floor(hashDimension(seed, 4) * 3);
const expansionTiming = lerp(0.5, 1.5, hashDimension(seed, 5));
const safetyWeight = lerp(0.3, 1.0, hashDimension(seed, 6));
const rawWeights = [
hashDimension(seed, 7),
hashDimension(seed, 8),
hashDimension(seed, 9),
hashDimension(seed, 10),
];
const floor = 0.1;
const floored = rawWeights.map(w => floor + w * (1 - 4 * floor));
const sum = floored.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
const normalized = floored.map(w => w / sum);
return {
riskTolerance,
researchFocus,
talentBias: {
research: normalized[0],
engineering: normalized[1],
operations: normalized[2],
sales: normalized[3],
},
modelAmbition,
pricingAggression,
infraStrategy,
expansionTiming,
safetyWeight,
};
}
const BASE_RESEARCH_PRIORITY: Record<string, number> = {
'advanced-cooling': 200,
'dc-engineering-ii': 190,
'advanced-gpu-arch': 180,
'alignment-research': 250,
'transformer-v2': 165,
'quantization': 160,
'data-pipeline': 155,
'developer-relations': 150,
'enterprise-sales': 175,
'redundancy-protocols': 140,
'quality-assurance': 130,
'liquid-cooling-tech': 120,
'next-gen-gpu': 115,
'distributed-training': 110,
'inference-optimization': 105,
'dc-engineering-iii': 100,
'code-generation': 170,
'reasoning-enhancement': 90,
'amd-ecosystem': 85,
'infiniband-networking': 80,
'distillation': 75,
'inference-specialization': 70,
'sdk-platform': 65,
'request-batching': 60,
'request-routing': 55,
'code-assistant-product': 168,
'creative-systems': 45,
'multimodal-fusion': 40,
'network-engineering-i': 35,
'rapid-deployment': 30,
'priority-queues': 25,
'interpretability': 180,
'immersion-cooling-tech': 18,
'frontier-compute': 16,
'dc-engineering-iv': 14,
'network-engineering-ii': 12,
'agentic-architecture': 88,
'constitutional-ai': 160,
'network-redundancy': 6,
'auto-scaling': 5,
'agents-platform-product': 86,
'network-fast-repair': 3,
'rack-scale-compute': 2,
'custom-silicon': 1,
'network-hot-standby': 0,
};
const INFRA_RESEARCH = new Set([
'advanced-cooling', 'dc-engineering-ii', 'dc-engineering-iii', 'dc-engineering-iv',
'liquid-cooling-tech', 'immersion-cooling-tech', 'redundancy-protocols',
'network-engineering-i', 'network-engineering-ii', 'network-redundancy',
'network-fast-repair', 'network-hot-standby', 'rapid-deployment',
'distributed-training', 'inference-optimization', 'quantization',
'infiniband-networking', 'rack-scale-compute', 'custom-silicon',
'frontier-compute', 'auto-scaling',
]);
const SAFETY_RESEARCH = new Set([
'alignment-research', 'interpretability', 'constitutional-ai',
'quality-assurance', 'enterprise-sales',
]);
const CAPABILITY_RESEARCH = new Set([
'transformer-v2', 'code-generation', 'reasoning-enhancement',
'creative-systems', 'multimodal-fusion', 'agentic-architecture',
'advanced-gpu-arch', 'next-gen-gpu', 'amd-ecosystem',
'distillation', 'inference-specialization',
]);
const PRODUCT_RESEARCH = new Set([
'developer-relations', 'enterprise-sales', 'code-assistant-product',
'agents-platform-product', 'sdk-platform', 'request-batching',
'request-routing', 'priority-queues', 'data-pipeline',
]);
function buildResearchPriority(profile: PersonaProfile): Record<string, number> {
const priorities = { ...BASE_RESEARCH_PRIORITY };
const boostSets: [Set<string>, number][] = [
[INFRA_RESEARCH, 100],
[SAFETY_RESEARCH, 150],
[CAPABILITY_RESEARCH, 120],
[PRODUCT_RESEARCH, 130],
];
if (profile.researchFocus <= 3) {
const [targetSet, boost] = boostSets[profile.researchFocus];
for (const id of targetSet) {
if (id in priorities) priorities[id] += boost;
}
}
// focus=4 is balanced — uses base priorities as-is
return priorities;
}
const TALENT_TOTALS: Record<Era, number> = {
startup: 15,
scaleup: 32,
bigtech: 60,
agi: 116,
};
function getOperationalDCs(state: GameState) {
const results: { dcId: string; coolingType: string; rackSkuId: string | null }[] = [];
for (const cluster of state.infrastructure.clusters) {
for (const campus of cluster.campuses) {
for (const dc of campus.dataCenters) {
if (dc.status === 'operational') {
results.push({ dcId: dc.id, coolingType: dc.coolingType, rackSkuId: dc.rackSkuId });
}
}
}
}
return results;
}
export class PersonaStrategy implements Strategy {
name: string;
private profile: PersonaProfile;
private researchPriority: Record<string, number>;
constructor(seed: number) {
this.profile = generatePersona(seed);
this.name = `persona-${seed}`;
this.researchPriority = buildResearchPriority(this.profile);
}
decide(state: GameState, _metrics: SimulationMetrics[]): void {
this.tryRaiseFunding(state);
this.tryBuildInfrastructure(state);
this.tryDeployRacks(state);
this.tryDeployModels(state);
this.tryOpenSourceModel(state);
this.cancelStalledTraining(state);
this.tryStartTraining(state);
this.tryEnableRevenue(state);
this.tryStartResearch(state);
this.tryHireTalent(state);
this.tryUpgradeInfra(state);
this.tryExpandInfra(state);
}
private cashSafe(state: GameState, cost: number, baseRunway = 100): boolean {
const runway = Math.round(baseRunway * this.profile.riskTolerance);
return state.economy.money - cost > state.economy.expensesPerTick * runway;
}
private getBestAffordableSku(state: GameState): RackSkuId | null {
const era = state.meta.currentEra;
const completed = state.research.completedResearch;
const eligible = (Object.entries(RACK_SKU_CONFIGS) as [RackSkuId, typeof RACK_SKU_CONFIGS[RackSkuId]][])
.filter(([, sku]) => {
if (ERA_ORDER.indexOf(era) < ERA_ORDER.indexOf(sku.era)) return false;
if (sku.requiredResearch.length > 0 && !sku.requiredResearch.every(r => completed.includes(r))) return false;
if (state.economy.money < sku.baseCost) return false;
return true;
});
const strat = this.profile.infraStrategy;
if (strat === 1) {
eligible.sort((a, b) => b[1].trainingFlops - a[1].trainingFlops);
} else if (strat === 2) {
eligible.sort((a, b) =>
(b[1].inferenceFlops / b[1].baseCost) - (a[1].inferenceFlops / a[1].baseCost),
);
} else {
eligible.sort((a, b) =>
(b[1].trainingFlops / b[1].baseCost) - (a[1].trainingFlops / a[1].baseCost),
);
}
return eligible.length > 0 ? eligible[0][0] : null;
}
private pickModelParams(state: GameState): number {
const vram = state.infrastructure.totalVramGB;
const era = state.meta.currentEra;
const maxByEra: Record<Era, number> = {
startup: 7,
scaleup: 70,
bigtech: 300,
agi: 1400,
};
const vramPerBillion = 2;
const maxByVram = Math.floor(vram / vramPerBillion);
const eraCap = Math.floor(maxByEra[era] * this.profile.modelAmbition);
const cap = Math.min(eraCap, maxByVram);
let best = PARAMETER_OPTIONS[0];
for (const p of PARAMETER_OPTIONS) {
if (p <= cap) best = p;
}
return best;
}
private tryRaiseFunding(state: GameState): void {
const { canRaise, nextRound } = canRaiseFunding(state);
if (!canRaise || !nextRound) return;
if (this.profile.riskTolerance < 0.5) {
const lowOnCash = state.economy.money < state.economy.expensesPerTick * 300;
if (!lowOnCash) return;
}
actions.raiseFunding(state, nextRound);
}
private tryBuildInfrastructure(state: GameState): void {
if (state.infrastructure.clusters.length === 0) {
actions.buildCluster(state, 'Primary', 'us-west');
}
for (const cluster of state.infrastructure.clusters) {
if (cluster.status !== 'operational') continue;
if (cluster.campuses.length === 0) {
actions.buildCampus(state, 'Campus-1', cluster.id, 'small');
}
for (const campus of cluster.campuses) {
if (campus.status !== 'operational') continue;
if (campus.dataCenters.length === 0) {
actions.buildDataCenter(state, 'DC-1', campus.id);
}
}
}
}
private tryDeployRacks(state: GameState): void {
const skuId = this.getBestAffordableSku(state);
if (!skuId) return;
const sku = RACK_SKU_CONFIGS[skuId];
const operationalDCs = getOperationalDCs(state);
for (const { dcId, coolingType, rackSkuId } of operationalDCs) {
if (rackSkuId !== null && rackSkuId !== skuId) continue;
const coolingOk = COOLING_ORDER.indexOf(sku.requiredCooling) <= COOLING_ORDER.indexOf(coolingType as typeof sku.requiredCooling);
if (!coolingOk) continue;
if (!this.cashSafe(state, sku.baseCost, 50)) break;
actions.fillDCToCapacity(state, dcId, skuId);
}
}
private tryDeployModels(state: GameState): void {
const undeployed = state.models.baseModels
.filter(m => !m.isDeployed)
.sort((a, b) => b.rawCapability - a.rawCapability);
if (undeployed.length > 0) {
actions.deployModel(state, undeployed[0].id);
}
}
private tryOpenSourceModel(state: GameState): void {
if (this.profile.safetyWeight < 0.7) return;
if (state.market.openSourcedModels.length > 0) return;
const deployed = state.models.baseModels.filter(m => m.isDeployed);
if (deployed.length > 0) {
actions.openSourceModel(state, deployed[0].id);
}
}
private cancelStalledTraining(state: GameState): void {
const threshold = Math.round(500 * this.profile.safetyWeight);
const stalledPipelines = state.models.activeTrainingPipelines.filter(
p => p.status === 'stalled',
);
for (const pipeline of stalledPipelines) {
const stalledTicks = state.meta.tickCount - pipeline.startedAtTick;
if (stalledTicks < threshold) continue;
const gen = state.models.families.find(f => f.id === pipeline.familyId)?.generation ?? 1;
const requiredVram = VRAM_REQUIREMENTS_BY_GENERATION[gen] ?? 0;
if (requiredVram > 0 && state.compute.totalVramGB < requiredVram) {
state.models.activeTrainingPipelines = state.models.activeTrainingPipelines.filter(
p => p.id !== pipeline.id,
);
}
}
}
private tryStartTraining(state: GameState): void {
const activeCount = state.models.activeTrainingPipelines.filter(
p => p.status === 'active' || p.status === 'stalled',
).length;
const maxSlots = MAX_CONCURRENT_TRAINING[state.meta.currentEra] ?? 1;
if (activeCount >= maxSlots) return;
if (state.infrastructure.totalVramGB <= 0) return;
const gen = state.models.families.length + 1;
const requiredVram = VRAM_REQUIREMENTS_BY_GENERATION[gen] ?? 0;
if (requiredVram > 0 && state.compute.totalVramGB < requiredVram) return;
const params = this.pickModelParams(state);
const trainingFlops = state.infrastructure.totalTrainingFlops;
const totalTicks = trainingFlops > 0
? Math.max(30, Math.ceil(PRETRAINING_BASE_TICKS / (1 + trainingFlops * 0.1)))
: PRETRAINING_BASE_TICKS;
const targetTokens = params * 20e9;
const hasCodeGen = state.research.completedResearch.includes('code-generation');
const sftSpecs: ('general' | 'code')[] = hasCodeGen ? ['general', 'code'] : ['general'];
const hasAlignment = state.research.completedResearch.includes('alignment-research');
const useMoE = this.profile.modelAmbition >= 0.7 && params > 30;
const archType = useMoE ? 'moe' as const : 'dense' as const;
const activeParams = useMoE ? Math.floor(params / 4) : params;
actions.startTrainingPipeline(state, {
familyName: `SimCorp-${gen}`,
architecture: {
type: archType,
totalParameters: params,
activeParameters: activeParams,
contextWindow: 32,
vocabularySize: 32000,
...(useMoE ? { expertCount: 8, expertTopK: 2 } : {}),
},
dataMix: { ...DEFAULT_DATA_MIX },
allocatedComputeFraction: 1.0,
targetTokens,
totalTicks,
sftSpecializations: sftSpecs,
alignmentMethod: hasAlignment ? 'rlhf' : 'dpo',
alignmentSafetyWeight: this.profile.safetyWeight,
});
}
private tryEnableRevenue(state: GameState): void {
if (state.models.bestDeployedModelScore <= 0) return;
const score = state.models.bestDeployedModelScore;
const pa = this.profile.pricingAggression;
const ct = state.market.consumerTiers.tiers;
if (!ct.free.config.isActive) actions.toggleConsumerTier(state, 'free');
if (!ct.plus.config.isActive) actions.toggleConsumerTier(state, 'plus');
if (!ct.pro.config.isActive && score >= Math.round(20 / pa)) {
actions.toggleConsumerTier(state, 'pro');
}
if (!ct.team.config.isActive && score >= Math.round(30 / pa)) {
actions.toggleConsumerTier(state, 'team');
}
const at = state.market.apiTiers.tiers;
if (!at.free.config.isActive) actions.toggleApiTier(state, 'free');
if (!at.payg.config.isActive) actions.toggleApiTier(state, 'payg');
if (!at.scale.config.isActive && score >= Math.round(25 / pa)) {
actions.toggleApiTier(state, 'scale');
}
if (!at['enterprise-api'].config.isActive && score >= Math.round(40 / pa)) {
actions.toggleApiTier(state, 'enterprise-api');
}
if (state.research.completedResearch.includes('code-assistant-product')
&& !state.market.codeAssistant.isActive) {
actions.toggleCodeAssistant(state);
actions.setCodeAssistantPrice(state, Math.round(20 * pa));
}
if (state.research.completedResearch.includes('agents-platform-product')
&& !state.market.agentsPlatform.isActive) {
actions.toggleAgentsPlatform(state);
actions.setAgentsPlatformPrice(state, Math.round(50 * pa));
}
}
private tryStartResearch(state: GameState): void {
if (state.research.activeResearch) return;
const available = getAvailableResearch(state);
if (available.length === 0) return;
const sorted = [...available].sort((a, b) => {
const pa = this.researchPriority[a.id] ?? 0;
const pb = this.researchPriority[b.id] ?? 0;
return pb - pa;
});
for (const candidate of sorted) {
if (!this.cashSafe(state, candidate.cost.money, 50)) continue;
actions.startResearch(state, {
researchId: candidate.id,
progressTicks: 0,
totalTicks: candidate.cost.ticks,
allocatedResearchers: 0,
allocatedCompute: 0,
moneySpent: 0,
});
return;
}
}
private tryHireTalent(state: GameState): void {
const era = state.meta.currentEra;
const total = TALENT_TOTALS[era];
const bias = this.profile.talentBias;
const targets: Record<string, number> = {
research: Math.max(1, Math.round(total * bias.research)),
engineering: Math.max(1, Math.round(total * bias.engineering)),
operations: Math.max(1, Math.round(total * bias.operations)),
sales: Math.max(1, Math.round(total * bias.sales)),
};
const depts = state.talent.departments;
for (const [dept, target] of Object.entries(targets)) {
const current = depts[dept as keyof typeof depts].headcount;
if (current < target) {
const needed = Math.min(target - current, 3);
const cost = needed * 2000;
if (this.cashSafe(state, cost, 200)) {
actions.hireDepartment(state, dept as actions.DepartmentId, needed);
}
}
}
}
private tryUpgradeInfra(state: GameState): void {
for (const cluster of state.infrastructure.clusters) {
for (const campus of cluster.campuses) {
for (const dc of campus.dataCenters) {
if (dc.status !== 'operational') continue;
if (dc.coolingType === 'air'
&& state.research.completedResearch.includes('liquid-cooling-tech')
&& this.cashSafe(state, 500_000)) {
actions.upgradeCoolingType(state, dc.id, 'liquid');
}
if (dc.coolingType === 'liquid'
&& state.research.completedResearch.includes('immersion-cooling-tech')
&& this.cashSafe(state, 1_000_000)) {
actions.upgradeCoolingType(state, dc.id, 'immersion');
}
if (dc.networkFabric === 'ethernet-100g'
&& this.cashSafe(state, 200_000)) {
actions.upgradeNetworkFabric(state, dc.id, 'ethernet-400g');
}
if (dc.networkFabric === 'ethernet-400g'
&& state.research.completedResearch.includes('infiniband-networking')
&& this.cashSafe(state, 500_000)) {
actions.upgradeNetworkFabric(state, dc.id, 'infiniband-ndr');
}
}
}
}
}
private tryExpandInfra(state: GameState): void {
const era = state.meta.currentEra;
const timing = this.profile.expansionTiming;
for (const cluster of state.infrastructure.clusters) {
if (cluster.status !== 'operational') continue;
for (const campus of cluster.campuses) {
if (campus.status !== 'operational') continue;
const fillRatio = campus.dataCenters.length > 0
? campus.dataCenters.filter(dc => {
if (dc.status !== 'operational') return true;
const tierConfig = DC_TIER_CONFIGS[dc.tier];
const mc = maxComputeRacks(tierConfig.rackSlots, dc.tier);
const existing = dc.computeRacksOnline + actions.pipelineCount(dc);
return existing >= mc;
}).length / campus.dataCenters.length
: 0;
if (fillRatio >= timing * 0.8 && campus.dataCenters.length > 0) {
const tierConfig = DC_TIER_CONFIGS[campus.dcTier];
if (this.cashSafe(state, tierConfig.baseCost, 300)) {
actions.addDCsToCampus(state, campus.id, 1);
}
}
}
}
const expansionDelay = Math.round((timing - 1.0) * 3000);
const scaleupTick = ERA_ORDER.indexOf(era) >= ERA_ORDER.indexOf('scaleup')
? state.meta.tickCount
: 0;
if (ERA_ORDER.indexOf(era) >= ERA_ORDER.indexOf('scaleup') && scaleupTick > expansionDelay) {
const targetTier = state.research.completedResearch.includes('dc-engineering-iii') ? 'large' as const
: state.research.completedResearch.includes('dc-engineering-ii') ? 'medium' as const
: 'small' as const;
for (const cluster of state.infrastructure.clusters) {
if (cluster.status !== 'operational') continue;
const hasHighTierCampus = cluster.campuses.some(c => c.dcTier === targetTier);
if (!hasHighTierCampus && this.cashSafe(state, 2_000_000, 300)) {
actions.buildCampus(state, `${targetTier}-Campus`, cluster.id, targetTier);
}
}
}
if (ERA_ORDER.indexOf(era) >= ERA_ORDER.indexOf('scaleup') && scaleupTick > expansionDelay) {
const usedLocations = new Set(state.infrastructure.clusters.map(c => c.locationId));
const candidates: ('eu-north' | 'us-east')[] = ['eu-north', 'us-east'];
for (const loc of candidates) {
if (!usedLocations.has(loc)) {
const locConfig = LOCATION_CONFIGS[loc];
if (ERA_ORDER.indexOf(era) >= ERA_ORDER.indexOf(locConfig.availableAt)) {
if (this.cashSafe(state, CLUSTER_COST_CONFIG.baseCost, 500)) {
actions.buildCluster(state, `Cluster-${loc}`, loc);
break;
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
@@ -48,6 +48,7 @@ export class RandomStrategy implements Strategy {
totalTicks: pick.cost.ticks,
allocatedResearchers: 0,
allocatedCompute: 0,
moneySpent: 0,
}));
}
}