Add game-simulation package with multi-run balance testing, fix stalled-pipeline trap

Adds a full simulation harness (game-simulation package) with greedy/random strategies, 36-metric diagnostics, multi-run orchestration via child processes, and a statistical interpreter. Includes 2.3x engine performance optimizations (research bonus caching, per-DC dirty tracking, reduced allocations in tick pipeline, single-pass loops). Fixes a critical balance bug where training pipelines stalled on insufficient VRAM would permanently block training slots — the engine never re-checked stalled pipelines, and the greedy strategy didn't pre-check VRAM requirements. This caused 20-25% of seeds to get stuck in Scale-up era. All three fixes (engine un-stalling, strategy VRAM pre-check, stalled pipeline cancellation) bring pass rate from 75% to 100% across 20 random seeds. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-26 06:11:26 -04:00
parent 283c7c7932
commit 102e05c8ba
51 changed files with 4294 additions and 132 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+import type { SimulationMetrics } from '../strategies/types';
+
+export type TrackedMetric = 'revenue' | 'subscribers' | 'developers'
+  | 'bestModelCapability' | 'reputation' | 'totalFlops';
+
+const TRACKED_METRICS: TrackedMetric[] = [
+  'revenue', 'subscribers', 'developers',
+  'bestModelCapability', 'reputation', 'totalFlops',
+];
+
+export interface StagnationAlert {
+  metric: TrackedMetric;
+  startTick: number;
+  endTick: number;
+  durationTicks: number;
+  stuckValue: number;
+  era: string;
+}
+
+export interface ExponentialAlert {
+  metric: TrackedMetric;
+  tick: number;
+  growthRate: number;
+  consecutiveSamples: number;
+}
+
+export interface GrowthRateResult {
+  stagnations: StagnationAlert[];
+  exponentialAlerts: ExponentialAlert[];
+}
+
+function getMetricValue(m: SimulationMetrics, metric: TrackedMetric): number {
+  return m[metric] as number;
+}
+
+export function analyzeGrowthRates(
+  metrics: SimulationMetrics[],
+  stagnationWindowSamples = 20,
+  stagnationThreshold = 0.01,
+): GrowthRateResult {
+  const stagnations: StagnationAlert[] = [];
+  const exponentialAlerts: ExponentialAlert[] = [];
+
+  for (const metric of TRACKED_METRICS) {
+    const growthRates: number[] = [];
+
+    for (let i = 1; i < metrics.length; i++) {
+      const prev = getMetricValue(metrics[i - 1], metric);
+      const curr = getMetricValue(metrics[i], metric);
+      if (prev > 0) {
+        growthRates.push((curr - prev) / prev);
+      } else {
+        growthRates.push(curr > 0 ? 1 : 0);
+      }
+    }
+
+    let stagnationStart: number | null = null;
+    let flatCount = 0;
+
+    for (let i = 0; i < growthRates.length; i++) {
+      if (Math.abs(growthRates[i]) < stagnationThreshold) {
+        if (stagnationStart === null) stagnationStart = i;
+        flatCount++;
+      } else {
+        if (flatCount >= stagnationWindowSamples && stagnationStart !== null) {
+          const startIdx = stagnationStart + 1;
+          const endIdx = i + 1;
+          stagnations.push({
+            metric,
+            startTick: metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0,
+            endTick: metrics[endIdx]?.tick ?? metrics[metrics.length - 1]?.tick ?? 0,
+            durationTicks: (metrics[endIdx]?.tick ?? 0) - (metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0),
+            stuckValue: getMetricValue(metrics[startIdx], metric),
+            era: metrics[startIdx]?.era ?? 'unknown',
+          });
+        }
+        stagnationStart = null;
+        flatCount = 0;
+      }
+    }
+
+    if (flatCount >= stagnationWindowSamples && stagnationStart !== null) {
+      const startIdx = stagnationStart + 1;
+      stagnations.push({
+        metric,
+        startTick: metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0,
+        endTick: metrics[metrics.length - 1]?.tick ?? 0,
+        durationTicks: (metrics[metrics.length - 1]?.tick ?? 0) - (metrics[startIdx]?.tick ?? 0),
+        stuckValue: getMetricValue(metrics[startIdx], metric),
+        era: metrics[startIdx]?.era ?? 'unknown',
+      });
+    }
+
+    let expCount = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < growthRates.length; i++) {
+      if (growthRates[i] > 0.10) {
+        expCount++;
+        if (expCount >= 5) {
+          exponentialAlerts.push({
+            metric,
+            tick: metrics[i + 1]?.tick ?? 0,
+            growthRate: growthRates[i],
+            consecutiveSamples: expCount,
+          });
+        }
+      } else {
+        expCount = 0;
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  return { stagnations, exponentialAlerts };
+}