Overhaul market system with shared TAM competition, multi-tier pricing, enterprise pipeline, and developer ecosystem

Replaces the simplified single-subscriber market with a full competitive simulation: shared TAM with softmax market shares across 4 segments, multi-tier consumer subscriptions (Free/Plus/Pro/Team) and API tiers (Free/PAYG/Scale/Enterprise), enterprise sales pipeline (Lead→Qualification→POC→Negotiation→Active→Renewal) with SLA tracking, developer ecosystem flywheel, technology obsolescence pressure, seasonal demand cycles, and two new product lines (Code Assistant, AI Agents Platform). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-25 08:30:24 -04:00
parent 4c1c0e9ff2
commit 09a5cb69a7
34 changed files with 2851 additions and 408 deletions
@@ -1,4 +1,6 @@
 import type { DCTier, DCTierConfig, RackSkuId, RackSkuConfig, SwitchTier, SwitchTierConfig, CampusTierCost, ClusterCostConfig, CoolingType, CoolingTypeConfig, NetworkFabric, NetworkFabricConfig } from '../types/infrastructure';
+import type { Era } from '../types/gameState';
+import type { ConsumerTierId, ApiTierId, SeasonalPhase, EnterprisePipelineStage, EnterpriseSegment, TAMSegmentId } from '../types/market';

 export const TICK_INTERVAL_MS = 1000;
 export const MAX_OFFLINE_TICKS = 86_400;
@@ -776,3 +778,214 @@ export const REGULATION_COMPLIANCE_PER_CAPABILITY = 0.5;
 export const SAFETY_INCIDENT_PROBABILITY_BASE = 0.0002;
 export const SAFETY_INCIDENT_REPUTATION_HIT = 15;
 export const LOW_SAFETY_THRESHOLD = 40;
+
+// ========================================================================
+// MARKET SYSTEM v2 — Shared TAM, Tiered Products, Enterprise Pipeline
+// ========================================================================
+
+// --- Shared TAM ---
+
+export const TAM_BASE_SIZES: Record<Era, Record<TAMSegmentId, number>> = {
+  startup:  { consumer: 50_000,      developer: 5_000,      enterprise: 500,     government: 50 },
+  scaleup:  { consumer: 5_000_000,   developer: 200_000,    enterprise: 5_000,   government: 500 },
+  bigtech:  { consumer: 50_000_000,  developer: 2_000_000,  enterprise: 50_000,  government: 5_000 },
+  agi:      { consumer: 500_000_000, developer: 20_000_000, enterprise: 200_000, government: 20_000 },
+};
+export const TAM_GROWTH_PER_TICK = 0.0001;
+export const SHARE_TEMPERATURE = 4.0;
+export const SHARE_MIGRATION_SPEED = 0.03;
+
+// --- Attractiveness Weights ---
+
+export const ATTRACTIVENESS_WEIGHTS: Record<TAMSegmentId, Record<string, number>> = {
+  consumer:   { quality: 0.30, price: 0.35, reputation: 0.15, ecosystem: 0.05, freshness: 0.10, freeTier: 0.05 },
+  developer:  { quality: 0.25, price: 0.25, reputation: 0.10, ecosystem: 0.25, freshness: 0.10, freeTier: 0.05 },
+  enterprise: { quality: 0.35, price: 0.15, reputation: 0.25, ecosystem: 0.10, freshness: 0.10, freeTier: 0.05 },
+  government: { quality: 0.25, price: 0.10, reputation: 0.35, ecosystem: 0.05, freshness: 0.10, freeTier: 0.15 },
+};
+
+// --- Consumer Tier Defaults ---
+
+export const CONSUMER_TIER_DEFAULTS: Record<ConsumerTierId, { price: number; tokenAllowance: number; requiredQuality: number }> = {
+  free: { price: 0,  tokenAllowance: 5_000,   requiredQuality: 0 },
+  plus: { price: 20, tokenAllowance: 50_000,  requiredQuality: 20 },
+  pro:  { price: 50, tokenAllowance: 200_000, requiredQuality: 40 },
+  team: { price: 30, tokenAllowance: 100_000, requiredQuality: 30 },
+};
+
+export const CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER: ConsumerTierId[] = ['free', 'plus', 'pro', 'team'];
+
+export const CONVERSION_RATES: Record<string, number> = {
+  'free->plus': 0.002,
+  'plus->pro': 0.0008,
+  'pro->team': 0.0003,
+};
+
+export const TIER_CHURN_RATES: Record<ConsumerTierId, number> = {
+  free: 0.0005,
+  plus: 0.001,
+  pro: 0.0006,
+  team: 0.0004,
+};
+
+export const FREE_TIER_ADOPTION_RATE = 0.05;
+
+// --- API Tier Defaults ---
+
+export const API_TIER_DEFAULTS: Record<ApiTierId, { monthlyFee: number; inputPrice: number; outputPrice: number; rateLimit: number }> = {
+  free:             { monthlyFee: 0,    inputPrice: 0,   outputPrice: 0,   rateLimit: 10 },
+  payg:             { monthlyFee: 0,    inputPrice: 1.0, outputPrice: 3.0, rateLimit: 100 },
+  scale:            { monthlyFee: 500,  inputPrice: 0.8, outputPrice: 2.4, rateLimit: 1000 },
+  'enterprise-api': { monthlyFee: 5000, inputPrice: 0.6, outputPrice: 1.8, rateLimit: 10000 },
+};
+
+export const API_TIER_ORDER: ApiTierId[] = ['free', 'payg', 'scale', 'enterprise-api'];
+
+export const API_TIER_CHURN_RATES: Record<ApiTierId, number> = {
+  free: 0.0003,
+  payg: 0.001,
+  scale: 0.0005,
+  'enterprise-api': 0.0003,
+};
+
+export const API_CONVERSION_RATES: Record<string, number> = {
+  'free->payg': 0.003,
+  'payg->scale': 0.001,
+  'scale->enterprise-api': 0.0004,
+};
+
+export const API_TOKENS_PER_DEVELOPER_PER_TICK: Record<ApiTierId, number> = {
+  free: 0.5,
+  payg: 5,
+  scale: 50,
+  'enterprise-api': 200,
+};
+
+// --- Code Assistant ---
+
+export const CODE_ASSISTANT_MIN_CODING_SCORE = 40;
+export const CODE_ASSISTANT_DEFAULT_PRICE = 20;
+export const CODE_ASSISTANT_BASE_ADOPTION_RATE = 0.003;
+export const CODE_ASSISTANT_CHURN_RATE = 0.0008;
+
+// --- Agents Platform ---
+
+export const AGENTS_PLATFORM_MIN_AGENTS_SCORE = 50;
+export const AGENTS_PLATFORM_DEFAULT_PRICE = 100;
+export const AGENTS_PLATFORM_BASE_ADOPTION_RATE = 0.002;
+export const AGENTS_PLATFORM_CHURN_RATE = 0.0005;
+
+// --- Enterprise Pipeline ---
+
+export const BASE_LEAD_RATE = 0.005;
+export const LEAD_EXPIRY_TICKS = 600;
+
+export const PIPELINE_STAGE_TIMEOUTS: Record<EnterprisePipelineStage, number> = {
+  lead: 300,
+  qualification: 200,
+  poc: 400,
+  negotiation: 300,
+};
+
+export const PIPELINE_TRANSITION_RATES: Record<string, number> = {
+  'lead->qualification': 0.02,
+  'qualification->poc': 0.015,
+  'poc->negotiation': 0.01,
+  'negotiation->active': 0.008,
+};
+
+export const SLA_PENALTY_FRACTION = 0.02;
+export const CONTRACT_BASE_DURATION_TICKS = 2400;
+
+export const ENTERPRISE_DEAL_VALUES: Record<EnterpriseSegment, { min: number; max: number }> = {
+  startup: { min: 5_000, max: 50_000 },
+  'mid-market': { min: 50_000, max: 500_000 },
+  enterprise: { min: 500_000, max: 5_000_000 },
+  government: { min: 1_000_000, max: 10_000_000 },
+};
+
+export const ENTERPRISE_SLA_REQUIREMENTS: Record<EnterpriseSegment, number> = {
+  startup: 0.95,
+  'mid-market': 0.97,
+  enterprise: 0.99,
+  government: 0.995,
+};
+
+export const ENTERPRISE_CAPABILITY_REQUIREMENTS: Record<EnterpriseSegment, number> = {
+  startup: 15,
+  'mid-market': 30,
+  enterprise: 50,
+  government: 45,
+};
+
+export const ENTERPRISE_TOKENS_PER_TICK: Record<EnterpriseSegment, { min: number; max: number }> = {
+  startup: { min: 50, max: 500 },
+  'mid-market': { min: 500, max: 5_000 },
+  enterprise: { min: 5_000, max: 50_000 },
+  government: { min: 2_000, max: 20_000 },
+};
+
+export const CONTRACT_DURATION_BY_SEGMENT: Record<EnterpriseSegment, number> = {
+  startup: 1200,
+  'mid-market': 2400,
+  enterprise: 4800,
+  government: 7200,
+};
+
+// --- Developer Ecosystem ---
+
+export const BASE_DEV_GROWTH = 0.001;
+export const FREE_TIER_DEV_MULTIPLIER = 0.0005;
+export const OPEN_SOURCE_DEV_BOOST = 0.05;
+export const DEV_REL_EFFECTIVENESS = 0.00001;
+export const SDK_GROWTH_BONUS = 0.01;
+
+export const DEV_ECOSYSTEM_WEIGHTS = {
+  communitySize: 0.30,
+  activeRatio: 0.20,
+  sdkCoverage: 0.20,
+  docQuality: 0.15,
+  openSource: 0.15,
+};
+
+export const STARTUP_ADOPTION_PER_DEV = 0.005;
+export const ENTERPRISE_REFERRAL_PER_STARTUP = 0.01;
+
+// --- Seasonal Demand ---
+
+export const SEASONAL_CYCLE_TICKS = 360;
+
+export const SEASONAL_MULTIPLIERS: Record<SeasonalPhase, Record<string, number>> = {
+  q1: { consumer: 0.90, api: 0.85, enterprise: 0.75 },
+  q2: { consumer: 1.00, api: 1.00, enterprise: 1.00 },
+  q3: { consumer: 0.95, api: 0.95, enterprise: 0.85 },
+  q4: { consumer: 1.10, api: 1.05, enterprise: 1.40 },
+};
+
+// --- Technology Obsolescence ---
+
+export const OBSOLESCENCE_BASELINE_GROWTH = 0.01;
+
+export const OBSOLESCENCE_ERA_ACCELERATOR: Record<Era, number> = {
+  startup: 1,
+  scaleup: 1.5,
+  bigtech: 2.5,
+  agi: 4,
+};
+
+export const FRESHNESS_DECAY_RATE = 0.001;
+export const NEW_MODEL_BOOST_VALUE = 0.15;
+export const NEW_MODEL_BOOST_TICKS = 200;
+export const OBSOLESCENCE_PENALTY_WEIGHT = 0.5;
+
+// --- Competitor Market Behavior ---
+
+export const COMPETITOR_PRODUCT_THRESHOLDS = {
+  freeTierAndChat: 20,
+  apiAndCodeAssistant: 40,
+  proTierAndEnterprise: 60,
+  agentsPlatform: 80,
+};
+
+export const COMPETITOR_CATCHUP_SHARE_THRESHOLD = 0.05;
+export const COMPETITOR_CATCHUP_PRICE_CUT = 0.3;
@@ -16,6 +16,13 @@ export interface Competitor {
  latestModelName: string;
  completedMilestones: string[];
  nextMilestoneAtTick: number;
+
+  products: CompetitorProducts;
+  pricingStrategy: CompetitorPricing;
+  modelFreshness: number;
+  lastModelReleaseTick: number;
+  developerEcosystemScore: number;
+  marketShares: Record<string, number>;
 }

 export type CompetitorArchetype = 'safety-first' | 'move-fast' | 'big-tech' | 'open-source' | 'stealth-startup';
@@ -29,6 +36,22 @@ export interface CompetitorPersonality {
  riskTolerance: number;
 }

+export interface CompetitorProducts {
+  hasFreeTier: boolean;
+  chatPrice: number;
+  apiInputPrice: number;
+  apiOutputPrice: number;
+  hasCodeAssistant: boolean;
+  codeAssistantPrice: number;
+  hasAgentsPlatform: boolean;
+  agentsPlatformPrice: number;
+}
+
+export interface CompetitorPricing {
+  aggressiveness: number;
+  premiumPositioning: number;
+}
+
 export const INITIAL_COMPETITORS: CompetitorState = {
  rivals: [],
  industryBenchmark: 0,
@@ -58,4 +58,4 @@ export const INITIAL_SETTINGS: GameSettings = {
  sfxVolume: 0.7,
 };

-export const SAVE_VERSION = 6;
+export const SAVE_VERSION = 7;
@@ -1,48 +1,177 @@
-export interface MarketState {
-  consumers: ConsumerMarket;
-  enterprise: EnterpriseMarket;
-  overloadPolicy: OverloadPolicy;
-  openSourcedModels: string[];
-  subscriberHistory: { tick: number; subscribers: number }[];
+import type { Era } from './gameState';
+
+// --- Seasonal ---
+
+export type SeasonalPhase = 'q1' | 'q2' | 'q3' | 'q4';
+
+// --- TAM (Total Addressable Market) ---
+
+export type TAMSegmentId = 'consumer' | 'developer' | 'enterprise' | 'government';
+
+export interface TAMSegment {
+  totalSize: number;
+  shares: MarketShareEntry[];
 }

-export interface ConsumerMarket {
-  totalSubscribers: number;
-  churnRatePerTick: number;
-  growthRatePerTick: number;
+export interface MarketShareEntry {
+  playerId: string;
+  sharePercent: number;
+  customers: number;
+  attractivenessScore: number;
+}
+
+export interface TotalAddressableMarket {
+  segments: Record<TAMSegmentId, TAMSegment>;
+}
+
+// --- Consumer Tiers ---
+
+export type ConsumerTierId = 'free' | 'plus' | 'pro' | 'team';
+
+export interface ConsumerTierConfig {
+  id: ConsumerTierId;
+  name: string;
+  price: number;
+  tokenAllowance: number;
+  requiredModelQuality: number;
+  isActive: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface ConsumerTierRuntime {
+  config: ConsumerTierConfig;
+  userCount: number;
+  conversionRateFromBelow: number;
+  churnRate: number;
+}
+
+export interface ConsumerTierState {
+  tiers: Record<ConsumerTierId, ConsumerTierRuntime>;
+  totalUsers: number;
  satisfaction: number;
  viralCoefficient: number;
 }

-export interface EnterpriseMarket {
-  activeContracts: EnterpriseContract[];
-  pendingRFPs: EnterpriseRFP[];
-  totalApiCallsPerTick: number;
-  averageTokensPerCall: number;
+// --- API Tiers ---
+
+export type ApiTierId = 'free' | 'payg' | 'scale' | 'enterprise-api';
+
+export interface ApiTierConfig {
+  id: ApiTierId;
+  name: string;
+  monthlyFee: number;
+  inputTokenPrice: number;
+  outputTokenPrice: number;
+  rateLimit: number;
+  isActive: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface ApiTierRuntime {
+  config: ApiTierConfig;
+  developerCount: number;
+  tokensPerTick: number;
+  churnRate: number;
+}
+
+export interface ApiTierState {
+  tiers: Record<ApiTierId, ApiTierRuntime>;
+  totalDevelopers: number;
+  totalTokensPerTick: number;
+}
+
+// --- New Product Lines ---
+
+export interface CodeAssistantState {
+  isUnlocked: boolean;
+  isActive: boolean;
+  pricePerSeat: number;
+  seats: number;
+  qualityScore: number;
+  satisfaction: number;
+}
+
+export interface AgentsPlatformState {
+  isUnlocked: boolean;
+  isActive: boolean;
+  pricePerSeat: number;
+  seats: number;
+  qualityScore: number;
+  satisfaction: number;
+}
+
+// --- Enterprise Pipeline ---
+
+export type EnterprisePipelineStage = 'lead' | 'qualification' | 'poc' | 'negotiation';
+
+export type EnterpriseSegment = 'startup' | 'mid-market' | 'enterprise' | 'government';
+
+export interface EnterpriseLead {
+  id: string;
+  companyName: string;
+  segment: EnterpriseSegment;
+  stage: EnterprisePipelineStage;
+  enteredStageAtTick: number;
+  dealValue: number;
+  tokensPerTick: number;
+  requiredCapability: number;
+  requiredSlaUptime: number;
+  requiredSafetyScore: number;
+  winProbability: number;
+  expiresAtTick: number;
 }

 export interface EnterpriseContract {
  id: string;
  customerName: string;
-  segment: 'startup' | 'mid-market' | 'enterprise' | 'government';
+  segment: EnterpriseSegment;
  tokensPerTick: number;
  pricePerMToken: number;
  slaUptime: number;
  startTick: number;
  durationTicks: number;
  satisfaction: number;
+  renewalProbability: number;
+  slaViolations: number;
+  slaPenaltiesPaid: number;
+  uptimeTicks: number;
+  totalTicks: number;
 }

-export interface EnterpriseRFP {
-  id: string;
-  customerName: string;
-  segment: 'startup' | 'mid-market' | 'enterprise' | 'government';
-  requiredCapability: number;
-  offeredPricePerMToken: number;
-  requiredSlaUptime: number;
-  expiresAtTick: number;
+export interface EnterpriseState {
+  pipeline: EnterpriseLead[];
+  activeContracts: EnterpriseContract[];
+  totalApiCallsPerTick: number;
+  averageTokensPerCall: number;
+  leadGenerationRate: number;
 }

+// --- Developer Ecosystem ---
+
+export interface DeveloperEcosystem {
+  communitySize: number;
+  activeDevelopers: number;
+  sdkCoverage: number;
+  documentationQuality: number;
+  openSourceContributions: number;
+  devRelSpending: number;
+  communityGrowthRate: number;
+  ecosystemScore: number;
+  startupsAdopted: number;
+  enterpriseReferrals: number;
+}
+
+// --- Technology Obsolescence ---
+
+export interface ObsolescenceState {
+  marketQualityBaseline: number;
+  baselineGrowthRate: number;
+  playerModelFreshness: number;
+  lastModelReleaseTick: number;
+  freshnessDecayRate: number;
+  newModelBoostRemaining: number;
+}
+
+// --- Overload Policy (kept from original) ---
+
 export interface OverloadPolicy {
  maxQueueDepth: number;
  rateLimitPerCustomer: number;
@@ -50,19 +179,140 @@ export interface OverloadPolicy {
  prioritizeEnterprise: boolean;
 }

+// --- Root Market State ---
+
+export interface MarketState {
+  tam: TotalAddressableMarket;
+  consumerTiers: ConsumerTierState;
+  apiTiers: ApiTierState;
+  codeAssistant: CodeAssistantState;
+  agentsPlatform: AgentsPlatformState;
+  enterprise: EnterpriseState;
+  developerEcosystem: DeveloperEcosystem;
+  seasonalPhase: SeasonalPhase;
+  seasonalMultiplier: number;
+  obsolescence: ObsolescenceState;
+  overloadPolicy: OverloadPolicy;
+  openSourcedModels: string[];
+  subscriberHistory: { tick: number; subscribers: number }[];
+}
+
+// --- Initial State ---
+
+function makeInitialTAMSegment(): TAMSegment {
+  return {
+    totalSize: 0,
+    shares: [
+      { playerId: 'player', sharePercent: 0, customers: 0, attractivenessScore: 0 },
+    ],
+  };
+}
+
+function makeConsumerTierRuntime(
+  id: ConsumerTierId,
+  name: string,
+  price: number,
+  tokenAllowance: number,
+  requiredModelQuality: number,
+): ConsumerTierRuntime {
+  return {
+    config: { id, name, price, tokenAllowance, requiredModelQuality, isActive: id === 'free' },
+    userCount: 0,
+    conversionRateFromBelow: 0,
+    churnRate: 0,
+  };
+}
+
+function makeApiTierRuntime(
+  id: ApiTierId,
+  name: string,
+  monthlyFee: number,
+  inputTokenPrice: number,
+  outputTokenPrice: number,
+  rateLimit: number,
+): ApiTierRuntime {
+  return {
+    config: { id, name, monthlyFee, inputTokenPrice, outputTokenPrice, rateLimit, isActive: id === 'free' },
+    developerCount: 0,
+    tokensPerTick: 0,
+    churnRate: 0,
+  };
+}
+
 export const INITIAL_MARKET: MarketState = {
-  consumers: {
-    totalSubscribers: 0,
-    churnRatePerTick: 0.001,
-    growthRatePerTick: 0,
+  tam: {
+    segments: {
+      consumer: makeInitialTAMSegment(),
+      developer: makeInitialTAMSegment(),
+      enterprise: makeInitialTAMSegment(),
+      government: makeInitialTAMSegment(),
+    },
+  },
+  consumerTiers: {
+    tiers: {
+      free: makeConsumerTierRuntime('free', 'Free', 0, 5_000, 0),
+      plus: makeConsumerTierRuntime('plus', 'Plus', 20, 50_000, 20),
+      pro: makeConsumerTierRuntime('pro', 'Pro', 50, 200_000, 40),
+      team: makeConsumerTierRuntime('team', 'Team', 30, 100_000, 30),
+    },
+    totalUsers: 0,
    satisfaction: 0.5,
    viralCoefficient: 0,
  },
+  apiTiers: {
+    tiers: {
+      free: makeApiTierRuntime('free', 'Free', 0, 0, 0, 10),
+      payg: makeApiTierRuntime('payg', 'Pay-as-you-go', 0, 1.0, 3.0, 100),
+      scale: makeApiTierRuntime('scale', 'Scale', 500, 0.8, 2.4, 1000),
+      'enterprise-api': makeApiTierRuntime('enterprise-api', 'Enterprise API', 5000, 0.6, 1.8, 10000),
+    },
+    totalDevelopers: 0,
+    totalTokensPerTick: 0,
+  },
+  codeAssistant: {
+    isUnlocked: false,
+    isActive: false,
+    pricePerSeat: 20,
+    seats: 0,
+    qualityScore: 0,
+    satisfaction: 0,
+  },
+  agentsPlatform: {
+    isUnlocked: false,
+    isActive: false,
+    pricePerSeat: 100,
+    seats: 0,
+    qualityScore: 0,
+    satisfaction: 0,
+  },
  enterprise: {
+    pipeline: [],
    activeContracts: [],
-    pendingRFPs: [],
    totalApiCallsPerTick: 0,
    averageTokensPerCall: 500,
+    leadGenerationRate: 0,
+  },
+  developerEcosystem: {
+    communitySize: 0,
+    activeDevelopers: 0,
+    sdkCoverage: 0,
+    documentationQuality: 0.1,
+    openSourceContributions: 0,
+    devRelSpending: 0,
+    communityGrowthRate: 0,
+    ecosystemScore: 0,
+    startupsAdopted: 0,
+    enterpriseReferrals: 0,
+  },
+  seasonalPhase: 'q2',
+  seasonalMultiplier: 1.0,
+  obsolescence: {
+    marketQualityBaseline: 0,
+    baselineGrowthRate: 0.01,
+    playerModelFreshness: 0,
+    lastModelReleaseTick: 0,
+    freshnessDecayRate: 0.001,
+    newModelBoostRemaining: 0,
  },
  overloadPolicy: {
    maxQueueDepth: 100,