Overhaul market system with shared TAM competition, multi-tier pricing, enterprise pipeline, and developer ecosystem

Replaces the simplified single-subscriber market with a full competitive simulation: shared TAM with softmax market shares across 4 segments, multi-tier consumer subscriptions (Free/Plus/Pro/Team) and API tiers (Free/PAYG/Scale/Enterprise), enterprise sales pipeline (Lead→Qualification→POC→Negotiation→Active→Renewal) with SLA tracking, developer ecosystem flywheel, technology obsolescence pressure, seasonal demand cycles, and two new product lines (Code Assistant, AI Agents Platform). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-25 08:30:24 -04:00
parent 4c1c0e9ff2
commit 09a5cb69a7
34 changed files with 2851 additions and 408 deletions
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+import type { GameState, MarketState, BenchmarkResult, Competitor } from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
+import { CONSUMER_TOKENS_PER_SUBSCRIBER } from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
+import { BENCHMARKS } from '../../data/benchmarks';
+import { computeSeasonal } from './seasonalSystem';
+import { updateObsolescence } from './obsolescenceSystem';
+import { buildPlayerProfile, buildCompetitorProfile, computeMarketShares, updateTAMGrowth } from './tamSystem';
+import { processConsumerTiers } from './consumerTierSystem';
+import { processApiTiers } from './apiTierSystem';
+import { processProductLines } from './productLines';
+import { processDeveloperEcosystem } from './developerEcosystem';
+import { processEnterprisePipeline } from './enterprisePipeline';
+
+export interface MarketTickResult {
+  marketState: MarketState;
+  apiRevenue: number;
+  subscriptionRevenue: number;
+  totalTokenDemand: number;
+}
+
+function getSegmentQuality(
+  segment: 'consumer' | 'enterprise' | 'developer' | 'research',
+  benchmarkResults: BenchmarkResult[],
+  fallbackScore: number,
+): number {
+  if (benchmarkResults.length === 0) return fallbackScore / 100;
+
+  const bestByBenchmark = new Map<string, number>();
+  for (const r of benchmarkResults) {
+    const prev = bestByBenchmark.get(r.benchmarkId) ?? 0;
+    if (r.score > prev) bestByBenchmark.set(r.benchmarkId, r.score);
+  }
+
+  let weightedSum = 0;
+  let totalWeight = 0;
+  for (const bench of BENCHMARKS) {
+    const score = bestByBenchmark.get(bench.id);
+    if (score == null) continue;
+    const weight = bench.marketRelevance[segment];
+    weightedSum += (score / 100) * weight;
+    totalWeight += weight;
+  }
+
+  if (totalWeight === 0) return fallbackScore / 100;
+  return weightedSum / totalWeight;
+}
+
+export function processMarketV2(state: GameState, currentTickCapacity: number): MarketTickResult {
+  const consumerQuality = getSegmentQuality('consumer', state.models.benchmarkResults, state.models.bestDeployedModelScore);
+  const enterpriseQuality = getSegmentQuality('enterprise', state.models.benchmarkResults, state.models.bestDeployedModelScore);
+  const modelQuality = state.models.benchmarkResults.length > 0
+    ? (consumerQuality + enterpriseQuality) / 2
+    : state.models.bestDeployedModelScore / 100;
+
+  // --- Seasonal ---
+  const seasonal = computeSeasonal(state.meta.tickCount);
+
+  // --- Obsolescence ---
+  const obsolescence = updateObsolescence(
+    state.market.obsolescence,
+    state.meta.currentEra,
+    state.meta.tickCount,
+  );
+
+  // --- Developer Ecosystem ---
+  const freeApiDevs = state.market.apiTiers.tiers.free.developerCount;
+  const totalApiDevs = state.market.apiTiers.totalDevelopers;
+  const engineeringCount = state.talent.departments.engineering.headcount;
+
+  const devEcosystem = processDeveloperEcosystem(
+    state.market.developerEcosystem,
+    state.market.openSourcedModels.length,
+    freeApiDevs,
+    totalApiDevs,
+    engineeringCount,
+    state.meta.currentEra,
+  );
+
+  // --- TAM & Market Shares ---
+  const chatProduct = state.models.productLines.find(p => p.type === 'chat-product');
+  const textApi = state.models.productLines.find(p => p.type === 'text-api');
+
+  const chatPrice = chatProduct?.pricing.subscriptionPrice ?? 20;
+  const apiOutPrice = textApi?.pricing.outputTokenPrice ?? 3;
+
+  const hasAnyFreeTier = state.market.consumerTiers.tiers.free.config.isActive
+    || state.market.apiTiers.tiers.free.config.isActive;
+
+  const playerProfile = buildPlayerProfile(
+    modelQuality,
+    chatPrice,
+    apiOutPrice,
+    state.reputation.score,
+    devEcosystem,
+    obsolescence,
+    hasAnyFreeTier,
+  );
+
+  const activeRivals = state.competitors.rivals.filter(r => r.status === 'active');
+  const competitorProfiles = activeRivals.map(buildCompetitorProfile);
+  const allProfiles = [playerProfile, ...competitorProfiles];
+
+  let tam = updateTAMGrowth(state.market.tam, state.meta.currentEra);
+  tam = computeMarketShares(tam, allProfiles, obsolescence.marketQualityBaseline);
+
+  const playerConsumerCustomers = tam.segments.consumer.shares.find(s => s.playerId === 'player')?.customers ?? 0;
+  const playerDevCustomers = tam.segments.developer.shares.find(s => s.playerId === 'player')?.customers ?? 0;
+  const playerEntCustomers = tam.segments.enterprise.shares.find(s => s.playerId === 'player')?.customers ?? 0;
+
+  // --- Consumer Tiers ---
+  const consumerDemandEstimate = state.market.consumerTiers.totalUsers * CONSUMER_TOKENS_PER_SUBSCRIBER;
+  const demandCapacityRatio = currentTickCapacity > 0
+    ? consumerDemandEstimate / currentTickCapacity
+    : consumerDemandEstimate > 0 ? 10 : 0;
+
+  const consumerResult = processConsumerTiers(
+    state.market.consumerTiers,
+    playerConsumerCustomers,
+    modelQuality,
+    seasonal.multipliers.consumer,
+    demandCapacityRatio,
+    state.infrastructure.networkLatencyPenalty,
+    state.market.overloadPolicy,
+  );
+
+  // --- API Tiers ---
+  const apiResult = processApiTiers(
+    state.market.apiTiers,
+    playerDevCustomers,
+    modelQuality,
+    seasonal.multipliers.api,
+    devEcosystem,
+  );
+
+  // --- Product Lines ---
+  const productResult = processProductLines(
+    state.market.codeAssistant,
+    state.market.agentsPlatform,
+    state.models.benchmarkResults,
+    playerDevCustomers,
+    playerEntCustomers,
+    seasonal.multipliers.consumer,
+    seasonal.multipliers.enterprise,
+  );
+
+  // --- Enterprise Pipeline ---
+  const salesDept = state.talent.departments.sales;
+  const salesHeadcount = salesDept.headcount;
+  const salesEffectiveness = salesDept.effectiveness;
+
+  const enterpriseResult = processEnterprisePipeline(
+    state.market.enterprise,
+    state.reputation.score,
+    state.models.bestDeployedModelScore,
+    state.models.bestDeployedSafetyScore,
+    salesHeadcount,
+    salesEffectiveness,
+    devEcosystem,
+    seasonal.multipliers.enterprise,
+    state.meta.tickCount,
+    demandCapacityRatio,
+  );
+
+  // --- Aggregate revenue ---
+  const subscriptionRevenue = consumerResult.subscriptionRevenue
+    + productResult.codeAssistantRevenue
+    + productResult.agentsPlatformRevenue;
+
+  const apiRevenue = apiResult.apiRevenue
+    + enterpriseResult.contractRevenue
+    - enterpriseResult.slaPenalties;
+
+  const totalTokenDemand = consumerResult.totalConsumerTokenDemand
+    + apiResult.totalApiTokenDemand
+    + enterpriseResult.contractTokenDemand
+    + productResult.codeAssistantTokenDemand
+    + productResult.agentsPlatformTokenDemand;
+
+  // --- Subscriber history ---
+  const subscriberHistory = [...(state.market.subscriberHistory || [])];
+  if (state.meta.tickCount % 60 === 0) {
+    subscriberHistory.push({ tick: state.meta.tickCount, subscribers: consumerResult.consumerTiers.totalUsers });
+    if (subscriberHistory.length > 500) subscriberHistory.shift();
+  }
+
+  // --- Open source effects ---
+  const openSourceCount = state.market.openSourcedModels.length;
+  if (openSourceCount > 0) {
+    const revenueReduction = openSourceCount * 0.10 * 0.3;
+    const adjustedApiRevenue = apiRevenue * (1 - revenueReduction);
+    return {
+      marketState: {
+        ...state.market,
+        tam,
+        consumerTiers: consumerResult.consumerTiers,
+        apiTiers: apiResult.apiTiers,
+        codeAssistant: productResult.codeAssistant,
+        agentsPlatform: productResult.agentsPlatform,
+        enterprise: enterpriseResult.enterprise,
+        developerEcosystem: devEcosystem,
+        seasonalPhase: seasonal.phase,
+        seasonalMultiplier: seasonal.multipliers.consumer,
+        obsolescence,
+        subscriberHistory,
+      },
+      apiRevenue: Math.max(0, adjustedApiRevenue),
+      subscriptionRevenue,
+      totalTokenDemand,
+    };
+  }
+
+  return {
+    marketState: {
+      ...state.market,
+      tam,
+      consumerTiers: consumerResult.consumerTiers,
+      apiTiers: apiResult.apiTiers,
+      codeAssistant: productResult.codeAssistant,
+      agentsPlatform: productResult.agentsPlatform,
+      enterprise: enterpriseResult.enterprise,
+      developerEcosystem: devEcosystem,
+      seasonalPhase: seasonal.phase,
+      seasonalMultiplier: seasonal.multipliers.consumer,
+      obsolescence,
+      subscriberHistory,
+    },
+    apiRevenue: Math.max(0, apiRevenue),
+    subscriptionRevenue,
+    totalTokenDemand,
+  };
+}