Overhaul market system with shared TAM competition, multi-tier pricing, enterprise pipeline, and developer ecosystem

Replaces the simplified single-subscriber market with a full competitive simulation: shared TAM with softmax market shares across 4 segments, multi-tier consumer subscriptions (Free/Plus/Pro/Team) and API tiers (Free/PAYG/Scale/Enterprise), enterprise sales pipeline (Lead→Qualification→POC→Negotiation→Active→Renewal) with SLA tracking, developer ecosystem flywheel, technology obsolescence pressure, seasonal demand cycles, and two new product lines (Code Assistant, AI Agents Platform). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-25 08:30:24 -04:00
parent 4c1c0e9ff2
commit 09a5cb69a7
34 changed files with 2851 additions and 408 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+import type { ConsumerTierState, ConsumerTierId } from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
+import {
+  CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER,
+  CONVERSION_RATES,
+  TIER_CHURN_RATES,
+  FREE_TIER_ADOPTION_RATE,
+  CONSUMER_TOKENS_PER_SUBSCRIBER,
+  OVERLOAD_PENALTY_EXPONENT,
+  NETWORK_DEGRADATION,
+} from '@ai-tycoon/shared';
+
+export interface ConsumerTickResult {
+  consumerTiers: ConsumerTierState;
+  subscriptionRevenue: number;
+  totalConsumerTokenDemand: number;
+}
+
+export function processConsumerTiers(
+  tiers: ConsumerTierState,
+  playerConsumerCustomers: number,
+  modelQuality: number,
+  seasonalConsumerMultiplier: number,
+  demandCapacityRatio: number,
+  networkLatencyPenalty: number,
+  overloadPolicy: { degradeQualityUnderLoad: boolean; prioritizeEnterprise: boolean },
+): ConsumerTickResult {
+  const updated = {
+    tiers: { ...tiers.tiers },
+    totalUsers: 0,
+    satisfaction: tiers.satisfaction,
+    viralCoefficient: tiers.viralCoefficient,
+  };
+
+  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
+    updated.tiers[id] = { ...tiers.tiers[id], config: { ...tiers.tiers[id].config } };
+  }
+
+  if (modelQuality <= 0) {
+    return { consumerTiers: updated, subscriptionRevenue: 0, totalConsumerTokenDemand: 0 };
+  }
+
+  const qualityFactor = Math.max(0.1, modelQuality);
+  const freeAdoption = playerConsumerCustomers * FREE_TIER_ADOPTION_RATE * seasonalConsumerMultiplier;
+  const targetFreeUsers = Math.max(updated.tiers.free.userCount, freeAdoption);
+
+  const freeGrowth = (targetFreeUsers - updated.tiers.free.userCount) * 0.05;
+  updated.tiers.free.userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers.free.userCount + freeGrowth);
+  updated.tiers.free.churnRate = TIER_CHURN_RATES.free;
+  const freeChurn = updated.tiers.free.userCount * TIER_CHURN_RATES.free;
+  updated.tiers.free.userCount = Math.max(0, updated.tiers.free.userCount - freeChurn);
+
+  const prevTierMap: Record<ConsumerTierId, ConsumerTierId | null> = {
+    free: null,
+    plus: 'free',
+    pro: 'plus',
+    team: 'pro',
+  };
+
+  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
+    if (id === 'free') continue;
+    const tier = updated.tiers[id];
+    if (!tier.config.isActive) continue;
+    if (modelQuality * 100 < tier.config.requiredModelQuality) continue;
+
+    const prevId = prevTierMap[id];
+    if (!prevId) continue;
+    const prevTier = updated.tiers[prevId];
+
+    const conversionKey = `${prevId}->${id}`;
+    const baseRate = CONVERSION_RATES[conversionKey] ?? 0;
+    const priceAttr = tier.config.price > 0
+      ? Math.max(0.1, 1 - tier.config.price / 100)
+      : 1;
+    const convRate = baseRate * qualityFactor * priceAttr * seasonalConsumerMultiplier;
+
+    const converting = prevTier.userCount * convRate;
+    prevTier.userCount = Math.max(0, prevTier.userCount - converting);
+    tier.userCount += converting;
+    tier.conversionRateFromBelow = convRate;
+
+    tier.churnRate = TIER_CHURN_RATES[id];
+    const churnMultiplier = 1 + (1 - updated.satisfaction) * 2;
+    const churned = tier.userCount * tier.churnRate * churnMultiplier;
+    tier.userCount = Math.max(0, tier.userCount - churned);
+  }
+
+  let totalUsers = 0;
+  let subscriptionRevenue = 0;
+  let totalTokenDemand = 0;
+
+  for (const id of CONSUMER_TIER_ORDER) {
+    const tier = updated.tiers[id];
+    totalUsers += tier.userCount;
+    subscriptionRevenue += tier.userCount * (tier.config.price / 86400);
+    totalTokenDemand += tier.userCount * CONSUMER_TOKENS_PER_SUBSCRIBER;
+  }
+
+  updated.totalUsers = totalUsers;
+
+  let headroomBonus = 0;
+  let overloadPenalty = 0;
+  if (demandCapacityRatio <= 1) {
+    headroomBonus = (1 - demandCapacityRatio) * 0.2;
+  } else {
+    overloadPenalty = Math.min(1, Math.pow(demandCapacityRatio - 1, OVERLOAD_PENALTY_EXPONENT));
+  }
+
+  const netLatencyPenalty = networkLatencyPenalty * NETWORK_DEGRADATION.satisfactionPenaltyPerLatency;
+  updated.satisfaction = Math.min(1, Math.max(0,
+    0.3 + modelQuality * 0.5 + headroomBonus - overloadPenalty - netLatencyPenalty,
+  ));
+
+  if (overloadPolicy.degradeQualityUnderLoad && demandCapacityRatio > 0.85) {
+    updated.satisfaction = Math.max(0, updated.satisfaction - 0.02);
+  }
+  if (overloadPolicy.prioritizeEnterprise && demandCapacityRatio > 0.9) {
+    updated.satisfaction = Math.max(0, updated.satisfaction - 0.01);
+  }
+
+  updated.viralCoefficient = modelQuality > 0.5 ? 1 + (modelQuality - 0.5) * 2 : 0;
+
+  return {
+    consumerTiers: updated,
+    subscriptionRevenue,
+    totalConsumerTokenDemand: totalTokenDemand,
+  };
+}